751
FXUS63 KGID 180954
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
454 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers storms east of Highway 281 through noon.
  Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

- Spotty redevelopment in the late afternoon/evening (5pm-11pm).
  Most will stay dry, but a few storms could be strong to
  marginally severe.

- Still on track for widespread rain this weekend.

- Cooler next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

As expected, the line of thunderstorms continues to weaken as
it moves eastward across the area. CAMs show spotty/showers
storms lingering over the eastern half of the area through noon
before finally completely clearing out. There is a low chance
that a few thunderstorms redevelop late this afternoon and
evening (5pm to 11pm) in eastern portions of the area. If these
storms develop, convective parameters would favor strong to
severe updrafts, therefore the eastern half of the area remains
in a "Marginal Risk". That being said, coverage of these storms
should be pretty limited, and its possible that our area misses
out entirely.

After dry/quiet weather on Thursday, another upper low will
approach from the west on Friday. A few showers/t-storms remain
possible Friday evening and overnight, but this potential
continues to decrease, and the main window for rain/thunder
appears to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The
overall threat for severe weather is pretty low, with the CSU-
MLP only highlighting a small 5% area in NE/KS.

Exact details on rainfall totals remain quite uncertain at this
range, but totals over 1.00" are likely (50-80% chance) across
much of the area. Some deterministic model runs show as much as
3-4" in some areas. This is certainly possible on a localized
bases, but global ensembles indicate that rainfall totals in the
1.00-2.50" range will be most common (roughly the 25th to 75th
percentile).

Cooler air then filters in behind this system. High
temperatures may struggle to reach 70 degrees in many locations
through at least the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the TAF
sites/ region currently. Expect line to take an hour or two to
move across the TAF sites. The winds today will remain southerly
behind the line and winds look to gusts into the mid-20s for
most of the TAF period. Thinking there could be some low scud
this morning, but not seeing any low ceilings at this time. This
afternoon HRRR is hinting at some spotty isolated showers near
GRI, but not enough coverage to warrant a mention in the TAF
yet.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda