904
FXUS63 KGID 162343
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
643 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some storms Tuesday evening and night may be strong to
  marginally severe with hail up to the size of quarters and
  wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Southeast to south winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 25
  to 40 mph are expected Tuesday afternoon.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue with the highest
  chances Tuesday night (up to near 80%) and Friday night
  through Saturday (up to near 70%).

- High temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are expected through
  Friday then temperatures will cool into the 60s and 70s over the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper level trough is over the western part of the country.
Southeast to south winds are across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. Dewpoints are in the 50s and 60s,
and a shortwave trough is moving over the area. Showers and storms
are expected to develop across portions of the forecast area
during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Severe
weather is not expected. Rain and storm chances (up to 25%)
continue into the evening and overnight hours. High temperatures
today will mostly be in the 80s, and low temperatures tonight
will be in the 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

The upper trough to the west will begin to move over the central
Plains on Tuesday. The surface pressure gradient will tighten across
the area in response to the approaching upper trough. Therefore,
winds will strengthen out of the southeast to south on Tuesday
sustained around 15 to 30 mph during the afternoon with gusts of 25
to 40 mph. Some showers and storms will be possible (up to around a
20% chance) during the morning hours on Tuesday. High temperatures
on Tuesday will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Winds will
decrease some Tuesday evening and overnight but may still be gusty.
Chances of showers and storms will increase (up to near a 80%
chance) Tuesday evening and night as the upper trough continues to
move over the region. Some of these storms may be strong to
marginally severe Tuesday evening and night. Low temperatures
Tuesday night will generally be in the 60s.

Wednesday through Thursday...

Showers and storms will continue moving eastward Wednesday morning.
Winds will be out of the southeast to south but are not expected to
be as strong as the previous day. Temperatures on Wednesday will be
a little cooler than the previous day but highs are still expected
to be in the 80s. Chances of precipitation (less than 35%) continue
into Wednesday night for eastern portions of the area. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will mostly be in the 60s but some 50s
are possible across far western portions of the area as winds switch
to a more northwest to north direction. High temperatures on
Thursday may be a little warmer than the previous day.

Thursday night through Sunday night...

Low temperatures Thursday night will cool into the mid 50s to mid
60s with winds out of the northeast to east. An upper trough will
extend from Montana to the Desert Southwest on Friday. High
temperatures on Friday are expected to be mostly in the 80s. Rain
and storm chances increase up to around 35% Friday afternoon as a
shortwave moves over the area from the approaching upper trough. The
chances increase up to near 65% Friday night as a cold front
approaches the area. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. The cold front will continue to move through
the area on Saturday with high temperatures in the 70s. Rain and
storm chances (around 50% to near 70%) continue through the day on
Saturday. Low temperatures Saturday night will mostly be in the 50s
with a 30% to 60% chance of precipitation. Temperatures are expected
to be even cooler on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Rain and storm chances will decrease on Sunday to 15% to 30%. Low
temperatures Sunday night will be in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

This is a very tricky forecast with showers and thunderstorms
moving across the area this evening and overnight. Of higher
confidence is the winds, which will be generally out of the
south through the TAF period. Gusts should diminish some late
this evening and overnight but sustained winds will still be
12-15 kts. Tuesday morning sustained winds will increase to
around 20 kts, and gusts will be around 25 kts in the morning
before increasing to 30-35 kts Tuesday afternoon.

Clouds will increase this evening and overnight, with a layer at
10k to 15k ft AGL and another at 20k-25k ft AGL. Showers and
thunderstorms will move across the area during this time, and
included a VCTS for KEAR this evening as storms move in from the
southwest, and another VCTS for KGRI overnight as storms may
develop near KGRI (similar to last night). Clouds are expected
to thin out around daybreak. While some model guidance indicates
MVFR to IFR ceilings briefly around sunrise, confidence in this
remains low so did not include in these TAFs.

LLWS: Surface winds will remain a little strong to normally
include LLWS, but there is strong enough confidence to include a
period of LLWS at KEAR from 17/07Z to 17/12Z Tuesday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Schuldt