Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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779 FXUS63 KGID 161102 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 602 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms continue through mid afternoon. Severe weather is unlikely, but some small hail and gusty winds are possible in the strongest storms. - Additional storms could return from the southwest tonight into Tuesday morning. Then dry/windy through the rest of the daytime on Tuesday. - Weakening line of storms expected to move through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. - Mostly dry the rest of Wednesday and Thursday. Next good chance for rain and thunderstorms is Friday night through Saturday. - Trending cooler next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 455 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Thunderstorms have over-achieved early this morning, and this is not being handled well by any near-term model guidance. The general expectation that scattered showers and storms will continue to percolate through the morning and into the afternoon. Highest coverage is expected to gradually shift from southwest to northeast along with the upper level shortwave and a remnant MCV. Limited shear should prevent any organized severe threat, but CAMs show enough instability (1000-2000j/kg MUCAPE) for a few stronger updrafts capable of producing hail and perhaps some localized strong winds. This evening into tonight, another round of showers and storms could approach from the southwest. Confidence is low in exactly how things will play out given the CAMs poor performance tonight. Any activity that does develop is expected to dissipate and/or move out of the area by mid morning on Tuesday. The bulk of the day on Tuesday should remain dry as a deep upper trough approaches from the west. Ahead of this system, south- southeasterly winds are expected to gust to the 30-40 MPH range (possibly higher in the west). Models show convection developing well to our west Tuesday afternoon, with it eventually reaching the local forecast area late Tuesday evening into the overnight. As such, the main severe risk also remains to our west, and storms should exhibit a weakening trend as they move through central Nebraska/Kansas. This could be the first beneficial rain of September for some areas, and the 07Z NBM shows a 20-40% chance for 0.50" or more through midday Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, we will be between systems, and the latest forecast has trended a bit drier. Better chances for rain/storms then return as another deep trough move in late Friday through Saturday. This period appears even move favorable for beneficial rain. The 07Z highlights a 40-60% chance for an additional 0.50" 7pm Friday through 7pm Saturday. Forecast specifics become more uncertain as we head into next week, but global ensembles continue to favor a cooler pattern. High temperatures are more likely to be in the upper 60s and 70s than the mid to upper 80s that we have been seeing lately. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Short term models do not have a good handle on this mornings convection, so confidence isn`t the highest with what will happen this morning.The HRRR is the closest to what is currently on Radar and will use that as a guide for the first part of the forecast. I will keep VCTS for GRI this morning as the HRRR brings in two rounds of VCTS this morning. EAR is looking more VCSH, but wouldn`t be surprised if an isolated VCTS popped up. High pressure over MO will keep ESE winds over the TAF sites through the period. Model soundings keep the low levels dry this morning and tomorrow morning, so will keep VFR through the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Beda