701
FXUS63 KGID 181111
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
611 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers storms east of Highway 281 through noon.
  Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

- Spotty redevelopment in the late afternoon/evening (5pm-11pm).
  Most will stay dry, but a few storms could be strong to
  marginally severe.

- Still on track for widespread rain this weekend.

- Cooler next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

As expected, the line of thunderstorms continues to weaken as
it moves eastward across the area. CAMs show spotty/showers
storms lingering over the eastern half of the area through noon
before finally completely clearing out. There is a low chance
that a few thunderstorms redevelop late this afternoon and
evening (5pm to 11pm) in eastern portions of the area. If these
storms develop, convective parameters would favor strong to
severe updrafts, therefore the eastern half of the area remains
in a "Marginal Risk". That being said, coverage of these storms
should be pretty limited, and its possible that our area misses
out entirely.

After dry/quiet weather on Thursday, another upper low will
approach from the west on Friday. A few showers/t-storms remain
possible Friday evening and overnight, but this potential
continues to decrease, and the main window for rain/thunder
appears to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The
overall threat for severe weather is pretty low, with the CSU-
MLP only highlighting a small 5% area in NE/KS.

Exact details on rainfall totals remain quite uncertain at this
range, but totals over 1.00" are likely (50-80% chance) across
much of the area. Some deterministic model runs show as much as
3-4" in some areas. This is certainly possible on a localized
bases, but global ensembles indicate that rainfall totals in the
1.00-2.50" range will be most common (roughly the 25th to 75th
percentile).

Cooler air then filters in behind this system. High
temperatures may struggle to reach 70 degrees in many locations
through at least the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Decided to keep the TAFs dry for the 12z period as -SHRA
continues to weaken and short term models have isolated
convection this afternoon and evening. EAR looks dry for the
next 24hrs. The HRRR shows very isolated VCTS forming around 00z
SW of GRI and the NAMNest forms it a little later and farther
west near the Hwy 183 corridor. Both models move convection ENE.
Will brief the next shift to take a look at convection and if it
is needed for the 18z TAFs. The winds will be southerly today
with gusts into the mid-20s this afternoon.

Looking ahead, Thursday and Friday look dry. Friday evening
into Sunday rain chances/ convection will be around the area.
Saturday evening a MVFR ceiling is looking likely and the
ceiling will gradually lift Sunday and scatter out late Sunday
evening.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda