028
FXUS63 KGID 271724
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms move across the area this morning.

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening-overnight as
  storms move in from the west. Damaging wind gusts and large
  hail are possible with these storms.

- Warmer on Friday with strong to severe storms possible during
  the evening-overnight hours.

- Cooler this weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s and dry
  weather expected during the daytime hours.

- Warmer and active weather next week, with highs in the 80s and
  90s and scattered chances (25-50%) for precipitation each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Today...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving into western portions
of the area as of 4:15AM. These showers/storms will continue to
gradually moving east through the morning hours. Rain is expected to
exit western portions of the area by the late morning hours, and
exit eastern portions of the area during the afternoon. Lingering
cloud coverage behind the rain will help to keep temperatures below
normal (mid 80s to low 90s) today. Highs today will range from the
upper 70s across northeastern portions of the area to the mid 80s
across southwestern portions of the area. Winds will be breezy
today, with southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30
mph.


Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and trek east into the
area this evening. While initially discrete, storms are expected to
develop into clusters/lines over time. Instability will build over
the area, with 1500-2000 J/Kg of CAPE by the evening. Instability
combined with 35-40kts of shear will allow for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Storms that are able to remain discrete will carry a
potential for large hail, with clusters/lines having the potential
to producing damaging wind gusts. Storms will weaken as they move
further east across the area as instability begins to decrease.

Friday...

Any remaining showers from storms overnight are expected to quickly
exit eastern portions of the area Friday morning. Temperatures will
be warmer on Friday, as highs climb into the 80s (north) and 90s
(south). A cold front will move through the area on Friday, with
winds becoming northerly behind the front.

Thunderstorm chances return to the area Friday afternoon. Some
scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the cold front
Friday afternoon, though CAMs are fairly pessimistic on these storms
developing. Higher confidence exists in thunderstorms Friday evening
as storms that develop over the panhandle of Nebraska move into the
area. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with 2000-2500
J/Kg of CAPE and 35-40kts of shear. A mix of clusters and discrete
cells are possible with these storms. The main concerns with these
storms are for damaging wind gusts and large hail. Storms would
continue across the area Friday night and come to an end by sunrise
on Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday...

Pleasant weather is in store for this weekend behind the cold
frontal passage. Highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s with partly
cloudy to mostly sunny skies during the daytime hours. A few
scattered chances for thunderstorms exist during the late evening to
overnight hours.

Next week...

Warmer and active weather returns next week as an approaching trough
moves over the Rockies. A series of shortwaves will move across the
area next week, bringing scattered, on and off chances (25-50%) for
precipitation to the area each day. Highs next week will return to
the upper 80s and 90s, with the potential for highs in the 100s on
Monday across portions of north central Kansas. Model consensus
begins to break down towards the end of next week, with the ECMWF
showing broad troughing over the area, and the GFS having a ridge
building over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

This evening an un upper level disturbance will move off the
Rockies and give the region a line of scattered convection from
SD to KS. The HRRR brings a small cluster storms across I-80
this evening, so went with -SHRA/VCTS in the TAFs using HRRR
timing. A SFC low will move out of the Rockies tomorrow morning
and I don`t have the highest confidence in -SHRA coverage or
timing for precip mid morning tomorrow, but felt a mention was
warranted for the potential to see something around the area.
Southerly Winds will be gusty today and will taper off overnight
and will become SW-NW as the cold front moves across the TAF
sites. Around the area seeing some MVFR ceilings, will go FEW
for now as none of the guidance has it for the TAF sites at
this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Beda