Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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957 FXUS63 KGID 271150 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 650 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers/thunderstorms move across the area this morning. - Strong to severe storms possible this evening-overnight as storms move in from the west. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible with these storms. - Warmer on Friday with strong to severe storms possible during the evening-overnight hours. - Cooler this weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s and dry weather expected during the daytime hours. - Warmer and active weather next week, with highs in the 80s and 90s and scattered chances (25-50%) for precipitation each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Today... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving into western portions of the area as of 4:15AM. These showers/storms will continue to gradually moving east through the morning hours. Rain is expected to exit western portions of the area by the late morning hours, and exit eastern portions of the area during the afternoon. Lingering cloud coverage behind the rain will help to keep temperatures below normal (mid 80s to low 90s) today. Highs today will range from the upper 70s across northeastern portions of the area to the mid 80s across southwestern portions of the area. Winds will be breezy today, with southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and trek east into the area this evening. While initially discrete, storms are expected to develop into clusters/lines over time. Instability will build over the area, with 1500-2000 J/Kg of CAPE by the evening. Instability combined with 35-40kts of shear will allow for strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms that are able to remain discrete will carry a potential for large hail, with clusters/lines having the potential to producing damaging wind gusts. Storms will weaken as they move further east across the area as instability begins to decrease. Friday... Any remaining showers from storms overnight are expected to quickly exit eastern portions of the area Friday morning. Temperatures will be warmer on Friday, as highs climb into the 80s (north) and 90s (south). A cold front will move through the area on Friday, with winds becoming northerly behind the front. Thunderstorm chances return to the area Friday afternoon. Some scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the cold front Friday afternoon, though CAMs are fairly pessimistic on these storms developing. Higher confidence exists in thunderstorms Friday evening as storms that develop over the panhandle of Nebraska move into the area. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with 2000-2500 J/Kg of CAPE and 35-40kts of shear. A mix of clusters and discrete cells are possible with these storms. The main concerns with these storms are for damaging wind gusts and large hail. Storms would continue across the area Friday night and come to an end by sunrise on Saturday. Saturday and Sunday... Pleasant weather is in store for this weekend behind the cold frontal passage. Highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies during the daytime hours. A few scattered chances for thunderstorms exist during the late evening to overnight hours. Next week... Warmer and active weather returns next week as an approaching trough moves over the Rockies. A series of shortwaves will move across the area next week, bringing scattered, on and off chances (25-50%) for precipitation to the area each day. Highs next week will return to the upper 80s and 90s, with the potential for highs in the 100s on Monday across portions of north central Kansas. Model consensus begins to break down towards the end of next week, with the ECMWF showing broad troughing over the area, and the GFS having a ridge building over the Rockies. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Scattered rain showers will continue to move across the TAF sites this morning, impacting KEAR before KGRI. SCT MVFR clouds are possible at KEAR over the next few hours. Any rain will come to an end late this morning from west to east. BKN clouds of 8-10k ft will persist throughout most of the day, with a few SCT clouds below that near rainfall. Clouds heights will increase after sunset. Near MVFR clouds are possible around the end of the TAF period. Have used SCT050 to indicate this potential/lowering. Southerly winds will increase this morning, with sustained winds around 15kts and gusts around 25Kts. Winds will decrease slightly overnight, with gusts falling to around 20Kts. Winds will remain southerly through the TAF period. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening, at both KGRI and KEAR. Confidence in how widespread storms will be and the timing of storms is low, so have not included a mention in the TAF. Gusty winds would be possible in any thunderstorm this evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Davis