454
FXUS63 KGID 190553
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1253 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms that have developed along the
  cold front this afternoon are expected to persist into this
  evening. Initial storms may be capable of producing hail to
  the size of two inches, but the greater threat will be wind
  gusts up to 70 mph. An isolated tornado/landspout cannot be
  ruled out as well. The main timeframe for possible severe
  weather will be between 3PM and 10PM today.

- After the severe threat diminishes late this evening, more
  widespread non-severe showers and thunderstorms are expected
  to fill in across the region, with rainfall totals of 1-2
  inches...with locally higher amounts...possible. This could
  result in localized flooding.

- Much cooler temperatures (60s and low 70s) and continued
  unsettled weather is expected Wednesday. Temperatures will
  return to normal (mid-80s) and above normal (90s) by the end
  of the week and through the weekend. Additionally...off and on
  low end thunderstorm chances will be possible across at least
  part of the forecast area each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

This afternoon and evening...

The main story with this forecast involves the showers and
thunderstorms that have already developed along the boundary of
a cold front moving east through the forecast area. Some of
these storms are expected to be strong to severe. Initially
late this afternoon hail to the size of two inches may be
possible in the strongest storms, but more likely hail sizes
would be closer to the size of quarters or half dollars. The
more widespread threat, especially as these storms evolve into a
more linear system, will be damaging winds up to 70 mph. An
isolated brief tornado/landspout or two may be possible as well,
but chances are low. The main timeframe of severe weather will
be 3PM to 10PM. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for
areas of the forecast area roughly along and east of a line from
Belgrade to Shelton to Stamford in south central Nebraska and
across all of our north central Kansas counties, until 8PM this
evening. This includes the towns of Grand Island and Hastings,
but does not quite extend to the town of Kearney.

Tonight and Wednesday...
As the chance for severe weather diminishes late this evening,
an upper level disturbance will swing across the area tonight
and Wednesday. As this moves over the frontal boundary, this
will enhance the chances for more widespread rain and
thunderstorms across the area...and potentially rainfall amounts
of 1-2 inches mainly approximately from the tri-cities and areas
south and east of that in south central Nebraska, and across the
entirety of north central Kansas. Locally heavier rainfall may
be possible south and east and this could result in localized
flooding. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain cool with highs
in the 60s across the area.

Thursday and Friday...
Another front is expected to move across the area Thursday,
then somewhat stall north of the area Friday. This will bring
shower and thunderstorm chances to much of the area Thursday,
and to northern portions of the forecast area Friday evening.
Weak upper level ridging will allow temperatures to warm back to
normal to above normal temperatures, with highs in the 80s
(normal) Thursday and in the 80s and low 90s Friday.

This weekend...
Generally, an upper level trough will move across the area
Saturday followed by an approaching ridge Sunday. Periodic low
chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast each day, but
currently it looks like most of the area should remain dry most
of the time. High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s across
the area. Low end chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry conditions are being observed with low VFR CIGS early this
morning with another round of showers and possible a few TSRAs
expected to develop before daybreak, bringing addition chances
for precip aft about 19/09Z. While CIGS should remain VFR...a
mid level cloud deck near 4-5KFT should persist through the
afternoon hours Wednesday, with CIGS potentially becoming MVFR
towards the tail end of the period when the cold front to our
south eventually lifts back north, bringing another chance for
additional SHRAs and TSRAs late Wednesday evening.
OVerall...winds will be northeasterly at less than 10 KTS to
start the period, eventually becoming more easterly late in the
period as the aforementioned front lifts north.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Rossi