402
FXUS63 KGID 012144
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
444 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms are expected to develop this
  afternoon, with all forms of severe weather possible. These
  storms should eventually merge this evening with a transition
  to mainly a wind threat after dark. Areas north and east of
  the Tri-cities could see rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches
  resulting in potential flooding.

- Heat index values have climbed over 100 across areas south of
  the warm front this afternoon, and should fill in northward
  across much of the remaining advisory area over the next few
  hours. Heat concerns should diminish by mid-evening.

- A cold front will bring northerly winds and mild temperatures
  to the area Tuesday, slowly crossing the local area through
  the daytime hours. A few strong to severe storms will be
  possible near and to the south of this front Tuesday PM.

- Another round of more widespread thunderstorms, some of which
  could be severe, is anticipated Wednesday evening.

- The 4th of July is looking fairly pleasant with high
  temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to the north and mid
  to upper 80s across north central Kansas. Dry weather is
  expect for the late afternoon through evening hours Thursday.

- Near to below normal temperatures with various small chances
  for precipitation expected through the remainder of the
  forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A warm front is lifting north across the region this afternoon.
Ahead of this front, low clouds and stratus have held
temperatures down in the 70s, while temperatures have spiked to
the south, with heat index values climbing above 100 the past
couple of hours across north central Kansas. Where skies have
remained clear, instability has grown the past few hours, and a
few storms are starting to develop across northwestern Kansas.
Given the shear associated with the warm front, these storms
could rapidly turn severe as they reach our area, and a tornado
watch is now in effect for all of south central Nebraska
through 10 PM. Later in the evening, as the storms merge and
develop into a line, expect the threat to transition to strong
winds, with thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 mph possible with
the stronger storms.

In addition to the chance for severe weather this evening, some
models have a secondary cluster of thunderstorms developing
across the Panhandle of Nebraska with a cold front and crossing
the area overnight, with the focus of the heaviest precipitation
mainly east of the Tri-Cities. If this develops, these areas
could see some significant rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches from
these multiple rounds of precipitation, potentially resulting
in localized flooding, and flood watch is also in effect for
several Nebraska counties mainly east of Highway 281 from 7 PM
this evening through 7 AM Tuesday morning.

As the aforementioned cold front stretches across the southern
portions of our area on Tuesday, could see additional storm
development mainly southeast of the Tri-Cities during the
afternoon hours, some of which will have the potential to be
strong to severe. This front should then sag further south on
Wednesday, with an upper level disturbance forecast to impact
the local area Wednesday night. This could bring some fairly
widepsread precipitation to the area again Wednesday night,
along with a small potential for some severe weather, especially
for areas west of Highway 281.

Thereafter the upper level flow will remain fairly active...with
multiple disturbances embedded in seasonably cool northwesterly
flow impacting the local area through next weekend. This will
result in generally near to below normal temperatures each
afternoon along with off and on again small chances for addition
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low level stratus can be seen eroding across north central
Kansas early this afternoon on satellite imagery. This trend is
forecast to continue over the next few hours, with improving
conditions at both terminals anticipated by 01/21Z-01/22Z. As
conditions improve, thunderstorms are expected to develop
west/southwest of the terminals, spreading east during the late
afternoon through evening hours. While both terminals will
likely be impacted by a period of +TSRAs along with the
potential for some strong thunderstorm wind gusts and even
severe weather, kept only a mention of a VCTS for the time
being and will need to amend TAFs to include the stronger storms
once they develop and timing becomes more clear. Contemplated a
6 hour period of LLWS at the terminals after midnight, but
ultimately opted to disregard as the agreement was not great in
model data and confidence was low. Thunderstorm chances should
shift east and diminish at the terminals around 02/07-08Z...with
a shift to northerly winds anticipated behind a cold front
during the morning hours Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ072-082-083.
     Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
     for NEZ040-041-047>049-063-064.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi