715
FXUS63 KGID 041749
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1249 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One last push of showers/thunderstorms swings east through the
  area this morning...with dry conditions expected to return
  early this afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated.

- Gusty northwest winds are expected this afternoon, gusts
  between 20-30 MPH will be possible. Speeds are expected to
  diminish this evening, with overall pleasant conditions by
  fireworks time/10-ish PM.

- Dry conditions are forecast for Friday, with precipitation
  chances returning for the weekend. Overall confidence in these
  chances are not high at this time, as differences between
  models with the timing/location continue. Potential for some
  strong-severe storms not out of the question on Saturday, the
  entire forecast area is included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal
  Risk area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Currently...

The forecast area is currently sitting in a relative lull in
activity, set up between 2 areas of showers/thunderstorms. The
first cluster, currently over far SE NE into eastern KS, is an
MCS which started off over western Nebraska and slid SE through
the forecast area...producing in a handful of 45-65 MPH wind
gusts. The second area is activity associated with an upper
level trough axis, shown by upper air and satellite data to be
sliding into the western Dakotas/NE Panhandle. At the surface,
an overall weaker frontal boundary is sinking south through the
area, ushering in a switch to more NNWrly winds...speeds are
generally 10-15 MPH. Satellite imagery showing a good chunk of
the area sitting with mostly clear skies between this activity,
and temps as of 3AM have dropped into the upper 50s to low 60s.

Today through Friday....

Looking at the rest of today, main forecast focus remains with
lingering precipitation chances and the timing of their exit.
Models remain in pretty good agreement showing the upper level
system continuing to slide east across the Dakotas today,
evolving into a closed low with time. The southward extending
trough axis slides through the Central Plains, with the timing
of the main precipitation chances today still coming during the
first half of the day. Didn`t make any notable changes to the
timing, with precipitation chances ending by early afternoon.
With the passage of the trough axis, expecting a better push
from an accompanying cool front, which will bring a reinforcing
shot of NWrly winds. Gusts through the afternoon hours ranging
from 20-30 MPH are not out of the question. Expecting
diminishing cloud cover through the day, with afternoon highs in
the mid 70s-low 80s...and with dewpoints falling into the low
50s to near 60 by early evening, conditions look to be pretty
nice for fireworks activities.

The forecast on through Friday into Friday evening remains dry,
though it may be a close call for far NNE portions of the
forecast area late in the day/early evening, as a few models
try to sink some isolated activity south into the area. Not
enough support in models/confidence to insert any PoPs, but
something for upcoming crews to take a look at. Expecting mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies for Friday...winds remain
northwesterly, and there will be the potential for gusty
conditions during the afternoon hours, though not thinking as
gusty as today may be. Afternoon highs have a slight bump up,
with more upper 70s to mid 80s.

This weekend...

Models remain in good agreement in the bigger picture looking
aloft as we get into this weekend....by 12Z Saturday we are
sitting under more northwesterly flow, with broad troughing
affecting portions of the Plains into the Midwest/Gulf regions,
and ridging extending northward along the West Coast. Main
forecast question lies with any embedded shortwave disturbances
sliding southeast into the region, bringing along precipitation
chances. Unfortunately, because there are some notable
differences with the timing/location, overall confidence is not
high. Model solutions vary from just one main wave sliding
through Sat night into Sunday...to a couple of waves bringing
chances already Saturday morning and lingering them through the
rest of the weekend. Hard to have a lot of confidence in
potential for strong/severe storms looking at Saturday, but if
enough moisture/instability return occurs like some models
show...it`s not out of the question. Models are in better
agreement showing around 35-40kts of deeper layer shear in the
area. Plenty of details to iron out...but the entire forecast
area is included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area. How Sunday
pans out will be impacted by what happens Saturday. High
temperatures through the weekend area in the mid 70s to mid
80s...but uncertainties in precip chances doesn`t boost
confidence in highs.

First half of the new work week...

Outside of some spotty, low preciptiation chances (20 percent or
less) Tuesday night into Wednesday, much of the first half of
the work week is dry. Models are in decent agreement showing
that amplified upper level ridging sitting over the West Coast
through the weekend start to shift a little more east with time,
potentially pushing the better precip chances east. Would have
higher confidence in the dry forecast if the center of that
upper high was closer to the forecast area...currently models
have us under NNWrly flow, potentially affected by any waves
riding around the edge of the ridging. Will have to see how that
trends over the next few days. With the ridging sliding a bit
east, expecting a bump up in highs, with mid 80s-low 90s
forecast by Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

It will be a quiet aviation weather period with clear to mostly
clear skies and VFR conditions persisting throughout the TAF
valid period. The wind will be a bit gusty out of the northwest
at times this afternoon and then again tomorrow.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Wesely