Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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019 FXUS63 KGID 260533 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening, particularly for areas from Ord to Hebron. Damaging winds will be the main threat; although, an isolated tornado or large hail will be possible near the boundary. - After high temperatures in the 90s to around 105 and Heat Advisories the past two days, a welcome cool down will arrive Wednesday. - A cold front will move across the region Thursday and Friday, bringing some cooler temperatures to the area in time for the weekend. Additional chances for thunderstorms (40-60%) will arrive on Thursday, a few of which may become strong to severe. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday. - Another warm up is expected as CPC outlooks show the potential for above normal temperatures to return next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Afternoon high temperatures are expected to peak in the mid-90s to around 102 degrees across the region this afternoon, with the warmest temperatures being in areas along and south of the Kansas- Nebraska border. Heat index values as high as 107 degrees will be possible, particularly for the southern part of the area. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7PM this evening for north central Kansas, and Nuckolls and Thayer counties in south central Nebraska. A boundary is currently in place, extending from the Black Hills and Pine Ridge, southeast to around Mahoney State Park in eastern Nebraska. Visible satellite imagery shows a cu field in place along and north of the boundary. A few thunderstorms may develop along the boundary this afternoon; however, the better chances for storms will be this evening into tonight. This is a conditional situation with concern about cap strength and whether it will be able to break. Should the cap not break, convection is expected to be limited. However, should it break, we are looking at the potential for rapid storm development and strengthening. SBCAPE and MLCAPE values of 3000+ J/kg, approaching 1800+ J/kg, and steep lapse rates are expected. Additionally, soundings are showing the possibility of an inverted-V type situation, which would increase the risk for strong and gusty winds. Right now, the main concern with any storms that are able to develop will be damaging winds, although an isolated hail threat and tornado risk are not out of the question for the northeastern part of the area along the boundary. Cooler air pushes in Wednesday behind the cold front, with temperatures around 10 degrees cooler in several locations. Expected highs will range from the mid-80s toward Ord and I-80, to the upper 80s along the Kansas-Nebraska border, and the low 90s in north central Kansas. High pressure will be in place over the Desert Southwest, with northwest flow over the Central High Plains. Heading into Thursday, the ridge will push to the east, with an upper trough coming over the PACNW. A mid-level trough is expected to develop on the lee side of the Rockies late Wednesday night into the day on Thursday, progressing to the east during the day. This will be our next best chance for severe storms across the Hastings area of responsibility. Right now, the entire area has been outlooked in a Marginal Risk by the Storm Prediction Center. Right now, the primary severe weather threat would be gusty winds. An isolated hail or tornado risk along the front cannot be entirely ruled out at this time. High temperatures will feel like a welcome relief for many, ranging from the upper 70s from Ord to Genoa, to the low/mid-80s from Lexington to Hebron and the Tri-Cities. Mid to upper 80s are expected for areas from Cambridge to Beloit and areas south. Overnight lows will be in the 60s and 70s. Friday brings a return of the heat for many as we come under southwest flow. Most areas will return to the upper 80s or the 90s. The upper trough from over the PACNW will track across Big Sky Country (Montana) and across the Dakotas on Friday and Saturday. A cold front will slip into the region Friday and Saturday. This will give us another chance for showers and thunderstorms, and some cooler air. Highs Saturday and Sunday will range from the upper 70s in the north to the mid-80s in the south. Enjoy the cooler temperatures, because they will not last. A ridge moves over the region, with high pressure covering much of the southern CONUS. The 6-10 Day, 8-14 Day, and 3-4 Week temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center are showing the possibility of some above normal temperatures for the end of the forecast period and into the longer range forecast. Normal highs are typically in the mid-80s with lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: A Thunderstorm will continue to impact KGRI over the next couple of hours and then depart. Wind gusts to 50mph are possible in this storm. Thunderstorms will stay north/east of KEAR. After thunderstorms exit the area light northerly winds will continue overnight. Winds will increase this morning, and become northeasterly. Winds will gradually shift to the east Wednesday afternoon and evening and become light and southeasterly by the end of the TAF period. SCT high level clouds will exit the area this morning, with a few high clouds possible during the daytime hours on Wednesday. SCT high level clouds will begin to build over the area at the end of the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wekesser AVIATION...Davis