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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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145 FXUS63 KGID 300555 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a slight risk of severe storms mainly Monday evening across south central and central Nebraska. There is a threat of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. - Heat index values may get near or reach 105 degrees Monday across portions of north central Kansas. - There is more uncertainty in regards to heat on Tuesday, but some locations across north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska may reach or exceed heat index values of 105 degrees. && .UPDATE... Issued at 714 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 -- Regarding very low-end rain/weak thunderstorm chances overnight: - Although not a "major change" from previous forecast, have opted to delay any mentionable (20+%) rain chances (PoPs) overnight in our southern coverage area (CWA) to AFTER 4am and have trimmed southward slightly (all 20+% PoPs now south of roughly a Beaver City- Beloit line). - Confidence is VERY HIGH that the VAST MAJORITY of our coverage area (CWA) gets through the entire night dry, and even if we do see any spotty thunderstorms toward sunrise Sunday in our southern zones, they would be very weak with even elevated instability extremely meager (a thankful far cry from last night!). Will defer to overnight forecast crew to make any PoP adjustments to the Sunday daytime forecast (7 AM and beyond). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Today through Sunday night... An upper level trough is over the Midwest and northern and central Plains. A cold front has moved into south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures today will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s with northerly winds. Winds become easterly tonight as the surface high moves eastward. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible (15% to near 40% chance) late tonight into Sunday morning across mainly north central Kansas as a shortwave moves over/near the area. Showers and storms are expected to continue through at least the morning hours on Sunday. Winds will primarily be out of the east to southeast Sunday afternoon with an upper ridge over the southern Plains. Showers and storms will remain possible (15% to near 25% chance) Sunday afternoon with the shortwave still over the area. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to range from the mid to upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will likely increase across the area Sunday night (up to around a 50% chance) as another shortwave moves over the area. Low temperatures Sunday night will generally be in the low to mid 60s. Monday and Monday night... Showers and thunderstorms may remain (15% to near a 60% chance) across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas through Monday morning. The NAM12 is showing a warm front moving northward through Kansas on Monday possibly reaching the Nebraska border. An upper trough will begin moving over the northern and central Plains by Monday evening and will provide increased lift. These parameters along with fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and lapse rates will allow for some storms, mainly Monday evening, to become severe. South central and central Nebraska are in a slight risk per the SPC Day 3 outlook. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible. There is some uncertainty regarding how far north the warm front will get on Monday which will influence high temperatures. Generally expect high temperatures to range from the upper 70s to around 100 degrees. Heat indices may approach or reach 105 degrees across portions of north central Kansas. Low temperatures Monday night are expected to range from the mid 60s to near 80 degrees. Tuesday and Tuesday night... A cold front will move into the region as an upper trough passes over the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms may develop along the cold front Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 80s to around 100 degrees. There is some uncertainty with high temperatures on Tuesday due to the cold front and possible (15% to near 30% chance) showers and thunderstorms developing along the front. If temperatures are on the warm side, heat indices may get up to or possibly exceed 105 degrees across portions of north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska on Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances (up to around a 55% chance) will continue into Tuesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will mostly be in the 60s. Wednesday through Friday night... High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to warm up into the mid 80s to lower 90s with southeast winds. Rain and storm chances continue into Wednesday (15% to around 35%) and increase Wednesday night (up to around a 50% chance) as a shortwave moves over the area. Low temperatures Wednesday night will generally be in the 60s with south to southeast winds. A cold front will begin moving into Nebraska and Kansas on Thursday (Independence Day) as an upper trough moves over the northern Plains and upper Midwest. High temperatures on the holiday are expected to range from the lower 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures Thursday night will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Friday due to the cold front with highs mainly in the 80s. Low temperatures Friday night are expected to range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions should prevail for most of the valid period, though expect increasing mid to high level clouds throughout the daytime hours today. Could see enough of an incr in low level moisture such that MVFR CIGs move in sometime this evening. Maintained an aftn VCSH at EAR, but appears the vast majority of this high-based showery activity should remain off to the S. NE winds currently will veer to SErly for the daytime hrs, becoming a bit brzy for the afternoon. Confidence: High. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Pfannkuch DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Thies