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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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817 FXUS63 KGLD 272052 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 252 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Not as hot but humid today with scattered severe storms this afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. - Severe storm potential continues Friday with large to very large hail and wind threat. - Daily potential for afternoon/evening storms this weekend into next week. - Heat index values in the low triple digits Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #475 has been issued for the entire Tri State region until 900 PM MDT/1000 PM CDT. Looking for threats to include large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes. Also could see locally heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 224 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Showers and embedded storms are finally starting to become a bit more established across the area. As mentioned in last nights discussion that there was a chance we would have to overcome some drier air which would cause rainfall to be a bit delayed. Looking at current RAP soundings that was the case. With the continued decaying of showers through the evening, that has allowed the area to saturate just enough for precipitation to form. Overall severe threat is low through the night, however will need to watch for some wind and perhaps some heat bursts as mesoanalysis still showers well over 1000 j/kg of DCAPE present. Anticipating some stratus to develop in wake of these showers and storms around sunrise, however guidance has been struggling handling the coverage and duration of the ongoing rain so overall coverage with the stratus is low. The stratus continues to appear to hang on for the majority of the day so have continued the keep temperatures across the east in the low to mid 80s. Elsewhere highs in the 90s are currently forecasted, with the humidity in place a fairly muggy day for High Plains standards will be on tap. As for convection potential for Thursday. If the stratus does manage to hang on for the majority of the day then a mesoscale differential heating boundary will be the main focus for afternoon convective initiation ahead of a subtle shortwave. Should storms initiate along this boundary which at this time appears to be from Graham County back into Wichita/Greeley county vicinity the environment would be favorable for supercell development with all hazards in play. The NAM does also show a 700mb jet streak situated across SW Kansas into eastern portions of the area roughly where this differential heating boundary may be which would help lift across the area. It is worth noting at this time the NAM is the only guidance showing this feature. The above mentioned shortwave will also bring some potential for isolated to scattered storms off of the Palmer Divide. Some potential for large hail is possible with this activity but warmer temperatures aloft and meager lapse rates may keep this threat lower. Perhaps the greater severe threat with this activity will be wet microbursts as a very moist air mass will be in place. The RAP and NAM soundings all have a microburst composite of 7-8 which is on the higher end of "chance potential" according to SPC Mesoanalysis page. A potential 3rd area of concern for severe weather for Thursday will be across northern and northeast portions of the area. Discrete supercells that develop in the Sandhills and Nebraska panhandle may merge into a cluster impacting portions of SW Nebraska and adjacent northeast CWA counties in Kansas. CAMS overall are not in very good consensus with this solution, however the HREF and WRF NSSL both suggest this potential which typically handles coverage fairly well. Damaging winds would be the primary hazard with this area. As mentioned above a very moist air mass is in place with PWATS of 1.7 to 2 inches which is around 90th percentile to max for this area for this time of year according to SPC sounding archives so will need to monitor for potential localized flooding concerns with storms. Friday will see a surface trough push through the area from the northwest. Highs for the day will again be the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area. Storms are forecast to develop off of the Front Range and along the surface trough in the Nebraska Panhandle and eventually become an area of cluster of storms with some embedded supercell potential as it moves ESE across the area. Any supercell that can materialize may pose a very large hail threat despite relative lower MUCAPE along with lower PWAT values and dew points, wind shear is very strong which would help keep hail aloft longer. 700 mb temperatures are also cooler than the previous days as well which would support hail growth. Will also need to watch for damaging wind threat especially if a cluster does form and does bow out. Saturday, will be a similar pattern to Friday but overall mesoscale features at this time are a little uncertain along with quality of moisture. NAM suggests that 60-low 70 dew points return ahead of a potential MCS developing across northeast Colorado; whereas the GFS is a bit delayed with the moisture return keeping it across southern Kansas. If the NAM does pan out then a severe risk would again be possible along with very heavy rain. GFS would virtually have no precipitation except for extreme western and southern portions of the area which may be clipped by the MCS. A lot still needs to be worked out for Saturday so stay up to date with the latest forecast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 From the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, amplified 500mb ridge will persist over the central Plains for Sunday and Monday, before the ridge flattens to zonal flow and shifts slightly eastward from Tuesday onward. There will be several shortwaves that traverse the northern periphery of the ridge each day. At the surface, the focus will be on a couple lows and their associated fronts that move through the region. The first system starts off a trough over the eastern slopes of the Rockies on Sunday, with a very slow shift south and east into Monday, settling south of the CWA for the Tue-Wed timeframe. A quicker system for the end of the week will push through the area, aided by a digging ridge from the north. As a result, each day the passage of the aforementioned shortwaves will interact the surface front/low, creating rw/trw. For Sun-Mon, while some initiation is expected for the late afternoon hours each day, the best chances(30-40%) will occur during the evening, especially north of the Interstate. These areas will be closest to the system as it slowly moves into the CWA. Better moisture feed and instability is expected for Tue-Wed as the boundary sets up along/south of the area, opening the area up to more of an easterly fetch for better low level moisture/instability and thus better storms chances(40-60%). High PW values around 1-2" are expected each day, with high numbers in the east, combined with daytime heating, will create as least the chances for storms producing heavy rainfall. But strong to severe storms are possible as well. For Thu-Fri, this will envelope the arrival of the second boundary albeit a bit weak. There still be be chances for storms like mentioned above, but lower chances of coverage area-wide(30-40%). For temps, daytime highs each period will continue at above normal levels. On Sunday, 80s area-wide. 90s will persist each day next week except for Monday where a range from the mid 90s to lower 100s are expected. Hottest areas will be along and east of Highway 25. With a return to 100+ degree heat, heat indices will be around 100 in areas along/east of Highway 83. This will have to be watched for a potential Heat Advisory. Overnight lows will range in the 60s. A few spots east on Monday night could only drop to the 70F mark. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1026 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 For KGLD, looking for VFR conditions through the forecast period at this time. There is the chance for thunderstorms to impact the area closer to the 00z Friday timeframe. For now due to low confidence on timing, have only mentioned a 3-hr window of VCTS and will adjust forecast as storms develop closer to the terminal. Winds, south-southwest 10-20kts with gusts to 30kts through 21z. By 00z Friday, south around 10kts, shifting southwest by 03z, then northwest by 12z. For KMCK, mainly VFR through the forecast period. There is current thinning MVFR ceilings that will dissipate as the afternoon progresses. Also, there is the chance for thunderstorms to impact the area closer to the 01z Friday timeframe. For now due to low confidence on timing, have only mentioned a 2-hr window of VCTS and will adjust forecast as storms develop closer to the terminal. Winds, south-southeast 15-30kts through 03z Friday, then south-southwest 5-10kts. By 13z, shifting northwest. LLWS 03z-10z Friday 180@40kts and again 10z-13z Friday 230@35kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JN