Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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099 FXUS63 KGLD 230929 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 329 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sunday through Tuesday will be hot! Highs in the upper 90s up to 105 are forecast. Heat indices will be fairly similar to air temperatures during this time. - Chances for storms each day. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 152 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 We currently have a 250mb high pressure system over Texas and a low pressure system in central Canada. These two features have created generally zonal flow through the Great Plains, which looks to remain over the next few days. In the lower levels, we can expect the flow to become southerly this evening. This air is expected to have a little moisture content that will slowly lower dewpoints through the period. These feature will contribute to low PoPs. This afternoon and evening, far northwestern Yuma county may see a few sprinkles as decaying showers from northern Colorado may (~20% confidence) reach the CWA before falling completely apart. Overnight tonight, we will remain mostly clear and winds will be fairly light from the south-southwest. A few CAMs were showing some fog moving into the eastern CWA tonight, but due to the SSW flow, confidence for fog formation is less than 10%. Tomorrow, we will see the southerly winds pick up to around 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts from the SSW. This will help a dryline form fairly early in the day. Also, at 500mb, a weak shortwave looks to start impacting the CWA around 18-21Z. These two features may set off some scattered storms in the early afternoon. Best time for convection will be between 20-01Z. A similar setup looks to occur on Monday afternoon, too. Temperatures tomorrow and Monday are of concern as temperatures will warm to over 100 for most of the CWA. Monday will be the hotter day, but heat indices east of highway 25 look to be over 100 both days, with some westward expansion on Monday. Be prepared for a very hot stretch of weather! Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid 60s to low 70s Sunday and Monday night. There are some elevated fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon in the western CWA. RH values lower into the upper teens and winds look to gust up around 15 kts. No where near critical fire weather conditions, but it is worth keeping an eye on any fires. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Overview: An upper level ridge.. extending northward from the Desert Southwest to the 4-Corners and central Rockies (Wed- Thu).. will flatten and regress southward to the Desert Southwest/Southern Plains (Thu-Fri), as an upper level low moving ashore the Pacific NW progresses eastward to the Dakotas and an associated trough /cyclonic flow aloft/ progresses eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies. In the wake of the progressive upper wave.. long range guidance indicates that a west-east elongated ridge will amplify over the southern CONUS (Sat-Sun). Above average temperatures are likely to persist throughout the extended forecast period. Wed: Precipitation chances /convective development/ will highly depend upon the evolution of the ridge. 00Z 06/23 operational ECMWF guidance continues to indicate that the magnitude, position and orientation of the ridge will be such that (1) synoptic subsidence may largely suppress diurnal convective development along the Colorado Front Range/Palmer Divide and (2) that low-level forcing/moisture may be insufficient for in-situ convective development on adjacent portions of the High Plains (i.e. northwest KS). 00Z 06/23 operational GFS guidance, on the other hand, continues to indicate a less pronounced, ridge.. with the mid-latitude westerlies (northwesterlies, in this case) in closer proximity to the Tri-State area.. a somewhat more favorable pattern for convective development. Thu-Fri: While 00Z ECMWF/GFS operational guidance indicate that synoptic forcing assoc/w the progressive upper wave will largely be focused over the Northern Plains (Dakotas-Nebraska), the presence of cyclonic flow aloft, in of itself, suggests an above average potential for convection. Sat-Sun: With an amplifying, west-east elongated ridge over the southern CONUS.. above average temperatures and below average precipitation chances are presently expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1021 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at both terminals through the 06Z TAF period. Light southerly winds increase in magnitude towards sunrise to around 10-15 knots sustained with gusts to around 20 knots. Storms may develop tomorrow afternoon-evening, with general timing between 21-03Z. Low confidence in coverage and placement of any storms, and therefore, whether or not the terminals would be impacted; as such, have omitted from this TAF issuance but will reassess as needed. Storms tomorrow do carry the potential to become severe, with primary hazard of damaging wind gusts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 With hot conditions expected over the area Sunday and especially into Monday, with highs at least 100F area-wide, there could be some locales coming within a few degrees of at least tying the daily record(s). The records for Sunday, June 23rd and Monday, June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected forecast each day. Despite the region seeing triple digit heat, most locales are still below records. Sunday, 6/23 Monday, 6/24 Goodland KS 106F in 2012+ 109F in 2012 Burlington CO 106F in 1954 107F in 1954 Hill City KS 111F in 2012 114F in 2012 McCook NE 106F in 2012+ 107F in 1943 Colby KS 105F in 1943 107F in 2012 Tribune KS 105F in 1954 109F in 2012 Yuma CO 107F in 1954 103F in 2002 A (+) denotes a multiple year record && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ002>004- 014>016-029. CO...None. NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...CC CLIMATE...JN