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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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300 FXUS63 KGLD 041115 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 515 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog may develop through the mid morning hours today. - Breezy during the day today, but winds should subside this evening and allow for a mild evening with temperatures in the 60`s and generally clear skies. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1249 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 For the 4th of July, its looking like a fairly nice day across the area. The forecast calls for the area to shift to the back side of the upper troughing with high surface pressure moving in behind the front. With drier air moving in with the front, mostly sunny skies are expected today along with mild temperatures around the low 80`s. The main inconvenience is the front`s passage is forecast to increase winds out of the north during the day to around 20 mph with gusts around 25 to 40 mph. By this evening, the pressure gradient should weaken over the area and help winds become mainly calm around or shortly after sunset. Temperatures should quickly lower into the 60`s with mostly clear skies. Will need to keep an eye out for a pop up storm off the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado with the northwesterly flow, but the overall drier air is keeping chances around 15% or less. Even if a storm did form, it would likely be isolated and short lived. Overall, pretty good conditions for any fireworks. Tomorrow, the relatively mild conditions are forecast to continue with the upper trough still impacting the area and keeping us in northwest flow. With drier air forecast to remain over the area, skies should be mostly sunny with temperatures warming into the 80`s. Winds should be lighter as the higher pressure diffuses to the northeast with speeds around 10 mph from the northwest. With the northwest flow, will have to watch for storms again later tomorrow, but chances remain low with the drier air in place. Even if storms did form, they should be sub-severe and isolated to maybe scattered. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 115 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Saturday...the latest NBM guidance has 20%-40% chances for thunderstorms in the morning, prior to the arrival of a cold front that moves through from the northwest in the afternoon with 20%-30% pops. I`m not sure why the morning pops are so high, especially with a lack of moisture in the 850-500mb layer and a fairly dry boundary layer. The NAM and lesser extent ECMWF show another weather system moving through overnight with the current forecast showing 20%-40% chances for thunderstorms. GFS 850-500mb relative humidity is rather low with no qpf forecast. The high temperature forecast is also somewhat challenging. GFS/NAM 850mb temperatures support highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees while the ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures are about 5C to 10C cooler. For now, wont deviate from NBM forecast highs in the 85 to 90 degree range. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Sunday...500mb pattern is showing an upper level trough axis moving through within the broader pattern featuring troughing over the northern and central plains with ridging west of the rockies. With surface high pressure moving in, high temperatures look to be cooler than Saturday. Just how much cooler is the question as ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures are in the 15C to 18C range with the GFS in the 19C to 25C range. Given the spread in guidance, will continue to stay the course with the NBM which is forecasting highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s. Regarding rainfall chances, we`re again advertising 20%-40% pops in the morning and afternoon which seem to be tied to the ECMWF/GEM models which show a little more aggressive moisture available for thunderstorms when compared to the GFS. There`s better agreement during the night with 20%-30% chances for thunderstorms as weather systems move through from the northwest. Monday...we remain under northwest flow aloft. Presently, the forecast is dry but this flow pattern can be pesky with later model runs showing weather systems moving through, sparking some showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 80s, a good compromise when compared to a blend of GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday...presently, the afternoon hours are forecast to be dry. However, there is a fair signal that a weather system moves in during the afternoon per 700-500mb relative humidity. This would support increasing pops to at least slight chance territory. Any afternoon thunderstorms will move to the east/southeast overnight which is handled fairly by the NBM with 20% pops. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s, close to typical mixing from the warmer GFS/GEM models. ECMWF 850mb temperatures are about 5C to 7C cooler. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday...no change in the blocking 500mb pattern when compared to the past several days. High pressure ridge remains anchored west of the rockies with troughing east of the Mississippi River. There may be some afternoon and overnight showers and thunderstorms but for now those chances dont look higher than 20%. High temperatures remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 512 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 For KGLD & KMCK... Fog and low stratus are possible for the first few hours of the TAF period. Similar to prior nights, the low levels remain relatively saturated, but cloud cover and nearby storm outflows continue to cause conditions to fluctuate. Based on upstream obs of relatively clear skies behind the front, have opted to put KMCK with clear skies while KGLD has IFR to near IFR ceilings. Both terminals should be cautious through 14-15Z. After that VFR conditions with strong northerly winds is forecast through the daytime hours. Winds should then become light around or just after sunset. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...KAK