Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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665 FXUS63 KGLD 270506 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1106 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late afternoon through overnight shower/thunderstorm chances resume through the next 7 days. - Highs in the 90s Thursday, Friday then cooling into the 80s this weekend. - Highs back to around 100 degrees Monday with 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. - Heat index values of 100 to 104 currently forecast east of Highway 25 Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Tonight...PWAT values increase from the south with values peaking in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. A weather system will move off the Colorado front range and into far eastern Colorado around 8-9 PM MDT, continuing east toward Highway 25 by 12 AM MDT then through the remainder of the area east of Highway 25 overnight. Rainfall chances will generally be in the 40%-60% range. Adjustments may be needed (up and down) as there is a possibility of a small cluster of storms to move generally along and north of the Interstate (HRRR model). There is a threat for severe weather, mainly up until midnight along and west of Highway 27 where there is some fairly healthy elevated CAPE. Although moisture is plentiful per PWAT values, 0-6km winds in the 20 to 30 mph range should limit any flooding/flash flooding threat for the most part. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to around 70. Thursday-Thursday night...showers and thunderstorms (20%-60%) at 12z along/east of Highway 25 continue toward the east through the morning with a break anticipated for much of the area by mid to late afternoon. There will be another chance (20%-50%) for thunderstorms in the very late afternoon through evening hours before any activity lifts northeast and out of the area. Under a mostly to partly sunny sky and breezy to windy southerly winds, high temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to middle 90s, coolest across the east and hottest along the CO/KS border. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 60s. Friday-Friday night...another weather system moves off the Palmer Divide and into far eastern Colorado and adjacent counties west of Highway 27 in the afternoon with pops in the 20%-40% range, continuing east overnight with 40%-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures currently range from the upper 80s to upper 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to middle 60s. Saturday-Saturday night...a similar pattern to Friday with a 20% chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon reaching the Flagler area, continuing east-southeast with 20%-50% chances overnight. PWAT values are quite a bit lower in the 0.9-1.3 inch range with general storm motions around 15 to 20 mph. High temperatures look to be in the lower to upper 80s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, a meandering 500mb ridge will move across the southern portion of the country. The northern edge of the ridge will see several shortwaves passing eastward through the central Plains during this time. Current guidance brings these systems through mainly during the evening hours. At the surface, a low does work into the northern CWA during the Sunday timeframe, sinking slowly south through next Wed-Thu. This boundary will interact with the aforementioned shortwaves to trigger several rounds of rw/trw. Overall chances during the evening will range 30-40%, with some 20% chances during the late afternoon hours as things begin to wind up over the area. The area will see basically a W/NW flow aloft during the extended, and at the surface, southerly flow initially before the front moves south, and eventually E/SE by midweek. Overall this will give the area a return to well above normal and hot temperatures especially from Monday onwards. The E/SE flow by the end of the forecast will increase low level moisture(PW values 1- 2") into the region, aiding storms chances and better areal coverage. The persistent inflow of moisture could pose a heavy rainfall threat where the storms set up in additions to any wind/hail threats. For temps, highs on Sunday will range in the mid to upper 80s. Going into next Monday, a range from the upper 90s to the lower 100s. For Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly lower to mid 90s are expected. Areas along and east of Highway 83 on Monday will see heat indices approach the lower 100s and will need to be monitored for potential Heat Advisory issuance in the coming days. Overnight lows for tonight will range in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thereafter, mainly 60s expected, warmest east. A few spots in far eastern zones could be around the 70F mark. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1106 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected from TAF issuance through 11Z. Tonight, east-southeast winds will remain generally light with an occasional gust to 20+ kts through 12Z should storms make it to the terminal. There is a possibility of stratus toward 12Z to about mid-morning. Showers and thunderstorms are possible at the terminal as they move through from the west in the 07-12Z timeframe. Thursday morning, winds veer to the south and increase with gusts up to 30 kts. Morning potential sub VFR ceilings slowly improve through the morning to VFR category. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from TAF issuance through about 11Z or so. Tonight, east to east-southeast winds up to 11 kts are forecast. Showers and thunderstorms are currently forecast to reach the terminal from the west in the 11-18Z timeframe; however, confidence is low for impacts to the terminal. Sub VFR ceilings are possible as stratus moves in behind the storms. Thursday morning, winds veer to the south and increase with gusts up to 30 kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...KMK