102
FXUS63 KGLD 261935
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
135 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Late afternoon through overnight shower/thunderstorm chances
  resume through the next 7 days.

- Highs in the 90s Thursday, Friday then cooling into the 80s
  this weekend.

- Highs back to around 100 degrees Monday with 90s Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Heat index values of 100 to 104 currently forecast east of
  Highway 25 Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Tonight...PWAT values increase from the south with values peaking
in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. A weather system will move off the
Colorado front range and into far eastern Colorado around 8-9 PM
MDT, continuing east toward Highway 25 by 12 AM MDT then through the
remainder of the area east of Highway 25 overnight. Rainfall chances
will generally be in the 40%-60% range. Adjustments may be needed
(up and down) as there is a possibility of a small cluster of storms
to move generally along and north of the Interstate (HRRR model).
There is a threat for severe weather, mainly up until midnight along
and west of Highway 27 where there is some fairly healthy elevated
CAPE. Although moisture is plentiful per PWAT values, 0-6km winds in
the 20 to 30 mph range should limit any flooding/flash flooding
threat for the most part. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
lower 60s to around 70.

Thursday-Thursday night...showers and thunderstorms (20%-60%) at 12z
along/east of Highway 25 continue toward the east through the
morning with a break anticipated for much of the area by mid to late
afternoon. There will be another chance (20%-50%) for thunderstorms
in the very late afternoon through evening hours before any activity
lifts northeast and out of the area.  Under a mostly to partly sunny
sky and breezy to windy southerly winds, high temperatures are
forecast to be in the middle 80s to middle 90s, coolest across the
east and hottest along the CO/KS border. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the lower to upper 60s.

Friday-Friday night...another weather system moves off the Palmer
Divide and into far eastern Colorado and adjacent counties west of
Highway 27 in the afternoon with pops in the 20%-40% range,
continuing east overnight with 40%-50% chances for showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures currently range from the upper 80s
to upper 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Saturday-Saturday night...a similar pattern to Friday with a 20%
chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon reaching the Flagler
area, continuing east-southeast with 20%-50% chances overnight. PWAT
values are quite a bit lower in the 0.9-1.3 inch range with general
storm motions around 15 to 20 mph. High temperatures look to be in
the lower to upper 80s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, a meandering 500mb ridge will
move across the southern portion of the country. The northern edge
of the ridge will see several shortwaves passing eastward through
the central Plains during this time. Current guidance brings these
systems through mainly during the evening hours.

At the surface, a low does work into the northern CWA during the
Sunday timeframe, sinking slowly south through next Wed-Thu. This
boundary will interact with the aforementioned shortwaves to trigger
several rounds of rw/trw. Overall chances during the evening will
range 30-40%, with some 20% chances during the late afternoon hours
as things begin to wind up over the area.

The area will see basically a W/NW flow aloft during the extended,
and at the surface, southerly flow initially before the front moves
south, and eventually E/SE by midweek.

Overall this will give the area a return to well above normal and
hot temperatures especially from Monday onwards. The E/SE flow by
the end of the forecast will increase low level moisture(PW values 1-
2") into the region, aiding storms chances and better areal
coverage. The persistent inflow of moisture could pose a heavy
rainfall threat where the storms set up in additions to any
wind/hail threats.

For temps, highs on Sunday will range in the mid to upper 80s. Going
into next Monday, a range from the upper 90s to the lower 100s. For
Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly lower to mid 90s are expected.

Areas along and east of Highway 83 on Monday will see heat indices
approach the lower 100s and will need to be monitored for potential
Heat Advisory issuance in the coming days.

Overnight lows for tonight will range in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Thereafter, mainly 60s expected, warmest east. A few spots in far
eastern zones could be around the 70F mark.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through
11z. East winds gusting to 20kts at taf issuance will slowly
veer to the east-southeast through the afternoon, gusting up to
30kts. Tonight, east-southeast winds gusting up to 25kts are
forecast through 02z, decreasing without any gusts after 03z.
There is a possibility of stratus toward 12z. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible at the terminal as they move through
from the west in the 07z-11z timeframe. Thursday morning, winds
veer to the south and increase with gusts up to 30kts. Morning
potential sub VFR cigs slowly improve through the morning to VFR
category.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through
about 12z or so. An east wind around 11kts at taf issuance will
increase slightly with gusts up to 20kts through 00z. Tonight,
east to east-southeast winds up to 11kts are forecast. Showers
and thunderstorms are currently forecast to reach the terminal
from the west in the 09z-13z timeframe. Sub VFR cigs are
possible as stratus moves in. Thursday morning, winds veer to
the south and increase with gusts up to 30kts. There could be
some showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminal
through 15z-16z before they move away. Cigs look to remain sub
VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99