Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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630 FXUS62 KGSP 130738 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 338 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions will continue into the weekend as a hot upper level ridge builds into our region from the west. There may be a brief afternoon ridgetop shower or storm in the mountains. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected early next week as a weak cold front approaches from the north. The hottest days are expected to be Friday and Saturday, then the heat should continue into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM EDT Thursday: Upper-level shortwave currently situated over the Southeast via mid-level WV imagery will shift offshore during the daytime period, while interacting with a disturbance that is highlighted by NHC. No impacts are expected as the associated cirrus should gradually clear from west to east through the morning and afternoon hours, leading to maximized insolation at the surface during peak heating. With warm air aloft still in place and influence from a weak surface ridge, expect temperatures to rise well into the 80s, with a few lower 90s in locations south and east of the I-85 corridor. Despite a mid-level subsidence inversion in place, providing a hostile environment for convective initiation, CAMs continue to support the idea of enough mechanical lift to overcome the cap to produce ridgetop showers and thunderstorms during peak heating. Kept mentionable PoPs for this development, but very weak shear parameters would suggest that these storms won`t budge much and should have a hard time moving anywhere outside of the mountains. Modest mixing within the boundary layer should place dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s to help keep heat indices at bay. Placed between the exiting shortwave and an encroaching cold front from the northeast Thursday night will keep the sensible weather quiet, with some mix of cloudiness across the CFWA. Overnight lows are forecasted to be near-normal as a result. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 am EDT Thursday: An anticyclone will build into the region from the southwest through the short term, resulting in a generally hot and continued mostly dry period. With a short wave trough forecast to pass north of the region on Friday, a weak boundary is forecast to cross the CWA during the afternoon and evening, but will interact with an environment that will not be especially favorable for deep convection due to warm temperatures aloft and weak capping. Friday PoPs will therefore be limited to slight chances for diurnal ridge top showers and storms. Saturday will not be much more (or less) favorable for convection than on Friday, and PoPs are once again limited to slight chances for a few ridgetop cells during the afternoon/evening. Temperatures are forecast at around 5 degrees above climo through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 am EDT Thursday: An upper anticyclone is forecast to steadily lift into the Northeast early in the new work week, establishing a deep/weak easterly flow across our forecast area. This will result in increased moisture and improved chances for diurnal convection throughout the extended. However, "improved" is a relative term, as current global model guidance suggests that diurnal convection will merely by typical for this time of year, with widely scattered (30-40 PoPs) activity expected across the mountains, and isolated showers and storms forecast across the remainder of the area. Otherwise, temperatures will moderate, although still likely remaining a little above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. High clouds will continue to roam overhead through the daytime period with a few fair weather cu develop underneath during peak heating. A few ridgetop showers/storms are possible across the NC mountains, but confidence is too low at this time for a mention at KAVL. Otherwise, winds remain light and variable overnight with winds picking up out of the east to southeast tomorrow (4-8 kts). Outlook: Surface high pressure remains over the area through the end of the week with minimal chance for convection and associated flight restrictions. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDL NEAR TERM...CAC SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...CAC