Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
713 FXPQ50 PGUM 312202 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 802 AM ChST Sat Jun 1 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite shows partly cloudy skies and isolated showers within the coastal waters this morning. Altimetry this morning shows combined seas between 3 and 5 feet, composed mainly of east trade- wind swell and wind waves. && .Discussion... No changes to the going forecast made overnight. A dry trade-wind pattern remains in place across the Marianas. An analysis of CIMSS MIMIC H2O satellite data shows an area of higher PWAT values ranging from 2.10 to 2.57 inches moving toward the Marianas with the head just east of the Saipan and Tinian coastal waters. Latest model analysis continue a relatively dry trade-wind pattern will continue through the early part of next week. Winds may be light enough around the middle of the week for some island convection. && .Marine... Light to gentle trades are expected to prevail through the middle of next week. Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected to persist through the middle of next week. && .Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk... An active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) fragment stretches east-northeastward from west south-southwest of Chuuk to Pohnpei to east of Kwajalein. A trade-wind trough is also evident across Kwajalein and extending southward to just west of Majuro Atoll. Showers and storms persist across both features with the most focused convection near the trade-wind trough. A less active stretch looks possible this weekend before another pulse up along the ITCZ is forecasted early next week across eastern Micronesia and into Chuuk. Towards the latter half of the week the ITCZ looks to weaken and the pattern quiets down across eastern Micronesia. Little change in thought with the marine forecast. Combined seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the region. Seas could build into the 5 to 7 ft range across the RMI later this weekend. Kalo Buoy in RMI shows combined seas mainly 3 to 5 feet. && .Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap... Little change from the previous forecast for Yap and Palau. Calm and dry conditions should persist through the weekend and into next week for much of western Micronesia. The caveat is the potential for island convection across Yap and Palau over the next couple of days with light winds forecast through much of the column and PWATS greater than 2.00 inches. Gentle to moderate trades and benign seas conditions are expected to continue across the region through the weekend. Palau/Ngaraard Buoy shows combined seas mainly 2 to 4 feet from the east. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Kelly Micronesia: Williams