Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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026 FXUS61 KGYX 280734 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 334 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings fair weather today into Saturday morning. Low pressure tracking east across Quebec will lift a warm front into the area late Saturday bringing rain. A cold front then cross Sunday for continued chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. High pressure builds in from the west Monday bringing mostly dry conditions into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure centered over Lake Ontario will slide east across New England providing fair weather today. Northwest winds will be breezy this morning before relaxing this afternoon as the high moves closer to overhead. Highs will range from the upper 60s north to the upper 70s across the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... High pressure moves into the Gulf of Maine tonight and will gradually move east into the Atlantic during the day Saturday. Return flow around the high and an approaching trough will advect warmer air and moisture into the region leading to increasing clouds tonight into Saturday morning. This will lead to lows mainly in the 50s. The approaching trough will lead to low pressure developing over the Great Lakes Saturday morning with this low tracking ENE across Quebec into Saturday night. This low will lift warm front into New England late Saturday with showers breaking out from west to east Saturday afternoon. The 00Z model suite is in good agreement that instability will remain south and west of the area through 00Z Sunday limiting the chances for convection. PWATs will be on the rise Saturday afternoon approaching 1.75 to 2.25 inches by Saturday evening north to south. These high PWATs combined with building elevated instability will bring the threat for heavier rainfall Saturday evening into Saturday night with more details below in the long term section. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An unsettled weather pattern returns for the weekend. Low pressure tracking across Quebec will help a warm front and an eventual cold front through the area Saturday night and Sunday. Rain and chances for convection will be in store Saturday night before tapering to showers by daybreak on Sunday. There will be plenty of moisture to work with so locally heavy rainfall is possible during this period. Attention will be paid to the position of the frontal boundary and track of the surface low, which could support a swath of heavy rain. WPC has the area in a marginal risk with the window of concern late Saturday night through daybreak Sunday. On Sunday an upper level trough approaches the area which will help to initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. A few showers may linger into Monday as the upper level trough crosses the area although most of the day should be dry. As the upper level trough enters the Gulf of Maine indications are that low pressure will form. However, models continue to show the area of low pressure forming east of the area which will keep any additional showers offshore and allow high pressure to build eastward from the Ohio Valley Tuesday and Wednesday bringing dry and seasonable conditions to the area. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...VFR prevails today with a period of NW winds gusting 15-20 kts from mid morning until early afternoon before relaxing later this afternoon. VFR likely prevails tonight into Saturday morning. Clouds thicken and lower Saturday morning into the afternoon with -SHRA developing west to east Saturday afternoon. This will likely introduce periods of MVFR at KHIE and KLEB between 18Z Saturday to 00Z Sunday. Long Term...Numerous showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain Saturday night into Sunday morning will result in sub-VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term...NW winds around 20-25 kts will increase slightly after day break continuing marginal SCA conditions. Winds subside later this morning as high pressure moves in with winds and seas staying below SCA thresholds this afternoon into Saturday morning. Low pressure tracking northwest of New England will bring increasing southerly flow Saturday with winds and seas approaching SCA thresholds Saturday afternoon. Long Term...Small Craft Advisory conditions probable as southerly flow increases ahead of a cold front Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms may produce locally gusty winds. Monday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria as winds subside, however some choppy seas could approach 4 ft on the outer waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ152>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Schroeter SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Jamison