923
FXHW60 PHFO 270153
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
353 PM HST Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stable trade wind pattern will persist through Thursday with
breezy to locally windy trades. Periodic light showers will focus
over windward and mauka areas during this time. An increase in
shower activity and isolated thunderstorms will be possible over
portions of the state from Friday into the weekend as an upper-
level disturbance approaches and moves over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon, breezy to locally strong easterly trade winds
continue to prevail across the islands, steered by high pressure
that remains centered approximately 900 miles north-northeast of
Kauai. Latest radar imagery shows mostly dry conditions
statewide, other than a few light showers over windward locations
and across the Kona slopes of the Big Island where low-level
convergence has increased cloud cover this afternoon.

Trades will remain breezy to locally windy through Thursday as
the high pressure remains in place to the north. Impulses of
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to favor
windward and mauka areas, though rainfall accumulation will be
limited. Aside from some brief afternoon and evening showers over
Kona slopes of the Big Island, leeward areas will remain mostly
dry.

Guidance continues to show an upper-level disturbance moving
near the islands Friday and then passing near the western end of
the state this weekend. This disturbance will help increase
instability and enhance our trade wind showers, particularly on
Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible over the slopes of the Big Island on Friday and
Saturday afternoons, and over the far western end of the state on
Saturday and Sunday as temperatures aloft cool. However, with
precipitable water forecast to be near the seasonal normals, the
amount of moisture available will be a limiting factor. Conditions
return to a more typical summertime trade wind pattern by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy trade winds will persist across the island chain through
Thursday. Showers and low clouds riding in on the trades will
bring brief periods of MVFR conditions over windward and mauka
locations. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence
over and downwind of island terrain due to breezy trade winds
under the tradewind inversion.

No other AIRMETs are in effect at this time. However, AIRMET Sierra
for tempo mountain obscuration may be needed again tonight if shower
coverage increases overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the north of the state will gradually weaken and
shift eastward. A second stronger high will build to the
northwest of the state over the weekend and hold into the coming
week. Moderate to locally strong easterly trades will persist
through Thursday then weaken slightly to the gentle to fresh range
on Friday and hold through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) for the typically windier waters around Maui County and the
Big Island will likely be dropped Thursday night, but SCA
conditions may redevelop on Saturday or Sunday.

An upper level low moving in from the east may bring unsettled
weather to the area on Saturday and Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible, especially over the western half of
the state, and should be assumed to trigger locally higher winds
and seas.

Meanwhile, surf along east-facing shores will gradually ease over
the next few days, but will pick back up on Monday as winds both
local and upstream re-intensify.

Along south facing shores, a small, medium- to long- period south
swell will fill in tonight, peak Thursday night, then gradually
ease into the weekend. Near to below average surf along south
facing shores is expected into the coming week as well.

A small, medium period, northwest swell is expected to fill in
tonight and peak Thursday night. This will provide a small bump
along north facing shores that will persist through Friday then
virtually disappear over the weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vaughan
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Birchard/Bedal