837
FXHW60 PHFO 270638
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
838 PM HST Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trade winds will prevail through much of next week, with
slightly decreasing wind speeds from Sunday onward. Typical trade
wind showers will favor windward and mountain zones in the
overnight to early morning hours for the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The satellite imagery this evening shows bands of clouds,
associated with a weak disturbance aloft, riding into the
windward and mountain slopes of each island on the trade winds.
These clouds will produce brief passing showers mainly during the
overnight to early morning hours.

A weak high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands will
continue to produce moderate trade winds into much of next week.
The forecast changes over the next seven days will be subtle with
a slight decrease in trade wind strength from Sunday onward as the
ridge to the north breaks down due to the passage of a cold
frontal system. The shower forecast will also see only minor day
to day changes with a weak disturbance moving over the island
chain in the short term forecast. Expect a brief increase in
shower trends from Friday night to early Saturday, then drier
conditions are expected to return for the rest of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue for the next
several days. Low cigs and SHRA will impact windward and mauka
areas. Brief MVFR conds can be expected in heavier SHRA but VFR
should prevail.

NO AIRMETs currently in effect however with increased SHRA
overnight AIRMET Sierra for mtn obsc is possible along windward
locations.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak high pressure system north of the state will maintain
gentle to fresh trade winds through the rest of the week. The
latest forecast wind guidance keeps wind speeds just below Small
Craft Advisory thresholds in the channels near Maui and the Big
Island. This weekend a cold frontal system will move into the
Central Pacific basin, weakening the ridge north of the state.
Trade wind speeds will ease slightly from Sunday onward.

The current moderate northwest swell (320 to 330 degrees) will
continue to gradually decline through Friday. However, a new small,
medium period north-northwest swell (330 to 340 degrees) will
build in Friday night, providing a small, short lived boost to
surf along north and select west facing shores this weekend.

A series of overlapping south and southwest swells will keep
south shore surf slightly elevated into early next week. Although
the current long period southwest swell and an overlapping tiny
short period southwest swell will fade through tonight, another
tiny long period southwest (220 degrees) swell will build in by
Friday. The next small, long period south-southwest swell (200
degrees) is expected to fill in Monday and peak Tuesday into
Wednesday.

East facing shores will remain small through early next week due
to the lack of strong trades both locally and upstream.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Bohlin