Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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012 FXUS64 KHGX 290831 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The dominance of our new friend, the upper-level ridge, remains unchallenged as we creep forward into summer. Its presence over the Southern CONUS region continues to be broad and unyielding moving into the next couple of days. This is not atypical in our summer pattern, but its effect on our temperatures remains significant as July approaches. Expect highs to be well into the 90s. Coastal regions should remain in the lower 90s while our northern counties are closer to high-90s. Minimum temperatures will once again be in the high-70s. Locations along the coast and in the Houston Metro may not dip below 80 tonight. Some relief Sunday, with broad mid- 70s lows except regions near Galveston Bay and the Barrier Islands. Our Heat Advisory will go into effect at 12pm CDT this afternoon, and will last until 7pm CDT. Guidance suggests heat indices will remain on the higher end of the range of Heat Advisory criteria (108-112F) in some areas, so please take proper precautions to remain safe during these times. Some actions you can take are: know the symptoms of heat related illnesses, drink plenty of water, avoid strenuous outside activity, and check in on family, neighbors, and pets. Heat indices for Sunday remain in the triple digits, and may warrant the need for another Heat Advisory in the afternoon hours. We will be monitoring this closely. Remember, regardless of whether a Heat Advisory is issued again for tomorrow, you should still take proper precautions. Precipitation-wise, guidance remains in persistence with isolated showers and thunderstorms being possible in our afternoons. New rainfall amounts are projected to be less 0.1 inches, though slightly heavier amounts are possible when associated with strong thunderstorms. Ellis/Adams && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Not a whole lot of change to the ongoing forecast with broad mid-upper ridging mainly in control. Would anticipate the continued potential for some heat advisories depending on the llvl moisture/rh profiles and whether we can get some dewpoints to mix out. Otherwise, isolated diurnally driven precip is a possibility on a day-to-day basis with southern and eastern parts of the CWA seeing the better shot of measurable rain versus the Brazos Valley. The tropical wave/low over the nw Caribbean should be moving into Mexico early in the week and not a concern locally. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities are still anticipated to develop overnight across our northern TAF sites (CXO northward). Look for S winds around 5 to 9 knots. Any ceilings that do develop should persist until around 15Z when increasing S winds settle into the area (around or slightly above 10 knots). Some models are still hinting at possible SHRA developing overnight, and will adjust TAFs if this happens. VFR in the afternoon, and still not confident enough to mention any VCSH at this time. Anything that does develop will dissipate in the evening. Expecting to basically repeat this whole thing Saturday night through Sunday morning. 42 && .MARINE... Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Onshore winds will prevail through the middle of next week. A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche late tonight and Sunday and should bring a longer period 4-6ft swell into the northwest Gulf waters Sunday then diminish Monday. Otherwise, this system is expected to push inland into Mexico early in the week and is not anticipated to further impact the upper Texas coast. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 98 77 97 76 / 10 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 96 79 97 77 / 30 0 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 92 82 90 80 / 10 0 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313- 335-338-438-439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$