114
FXUS64 KHGX 081133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

There should be some subtle changes to the forecast this weekend for
SE TX as high pressure moves east of the area. This will allow for a
deepening onshore flow to develop, and in turn, a return of moisture/
humidity at the low levels. These strengthening SE winds should also
help to knock daytime temperatures down a couple of degrees...as the
highs today range from the lower to mid 90s, to "just" the lower 90s
for tomorrow.

For tonight, this increased WAA could be enough for the formation of
some isolated streamer showers by early Sun morning. However, probab-
ly not going to add any mention at this time. Otherwise, lows should
run in the lower to mid 70s tonight and tomorrow night. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

We transition to a more active pattern heading into next week as
the prevailing 500mb ridge loses its foothold over the area. With
midlevel flow becoming more zonal in nature, a series of
shortwaves will be allowed to swing into the South Central CONUS,
bringing us our next chance of widespread showers and storms.
Guidance has backed off on its previous depiction of a surface
frontal boundary pushing through the area and offshore on Monday,
instead now stalling the boundary somewhere north of the I-10
corridor during the evening hours. This should nonetheless be
sufficient to trigger some showers and storms given the robust
moisture availability and SBCAPE values in the vicinity of 1500
J/kg. Rain chances will be compounded by the potential for
diurnally driven showers and storms along the advancing sea/bay
breezes.

Further periods of active weather are expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday, with Tuesday evening a particular focus at the moment
as models continue to show the approach of an amplified shortwave
that could support the development of some stronger storms and/or
a MCS. There`s enough variability still present across global
deterministic models that PoPs remain relatively low, but this
will need to be monitored closely in the coming days. Upper
ridging will build back into the area on Thu/Fri, resulting in
lower rain chances.

Temperatures will remain generally in the mid 90s area-wide, with
overnight lows near 80 possible. Overnight lows will continue to
sit in the mid-70s. While heat index values are still below our
local criteria for an Advisory, it`ll still be important to
consider heat safety precaution if spending a lot of time
outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Patchy fog (some dense) has developed once again this morning mainly
at our usual sites (LBX/CXO), but will be expecting improved visibil-
ities in the next couple of hours. VFR conditions to prevail through
this afternoon/evening with S/SE winds 8-12kts. Winds will decrease/
weaken overnight (<5kts) with a chance of MVFR ceilings at some term-
inals by sunrise. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Light winds and low seas will persist in the immediate term, with
rainfall chances returning to the forecast late on Sunday and
remaining in place through mid-week. Scattered showers and storms
may occasionally produce strong wind gusts, but wind speeds should
otherwise remain below caution thresholds. Rainfall chances look
to diminish on Thursday.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  74  92  74 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  94  76  92  75 /   0  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  87  80  87  79 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cady