Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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887 FXUS64 KHGX 192320 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 620 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Upper level ridging centered over the TX Big Bend/northern MX remains strong, resulting in little weather pattern change across SE TX. At the surface, high pressure system continues overhead, leading to light to occasionally moderate warm and humid onshore flow. Overall, this pattern will keep us under a mostly dry, humid and hot pattern in the next few days. Highs will generally range into the low to mid 90s. Continue practicing heat safety as afternoon heat indices into the 100 to 107 degF range can be expected. A few showers will continue to develop along the coast, more towards the Matagorda/Palacios area. Decent moisture convergence (more likely due to sea breeze), and PW values into the 1.8 - 2.1 inch range are resulting in these light showers today and then again on Friday. Mild nights with mostly clear skies can be expected. Light winds and residual moisture will once again lead to areas of fog, some locally dense, across portions of the region. Most of this activity will be patchy and/or low-lying and should persist through mid Friday morning. JM && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The broad mid/upper ridge centered over the state on Sat is expected to slowly expand east and flatten a bit as a series of strong short- waves move across the Central/Northern Plains through the weekend on into the start of next week. This strongly subsident pattern will be keeping rain chances on the low to nil side for Sat/Sun...along with the continuation of above normal temperatures. The best chances will likely be near the coast with the seabreeze. Heading into Mon, the weakening ridge aloft and a slight increase of low-level moisture (from the Gulf) could allow for a more active sea breeze through mid week. This could also help to lower the temperat- ures a few degrees, but still above normal, unfortunately. Otherwise regarding the other elephant in the room/tropics, extended models do keep hinting at perhaps some possible development in the far western Caribbean or southern Gulf in the long long range (later next week). But, this is still a ways away and there are a lot of variables that have yet to play out. So, the best advice is to just remain aware of the latest forecasts from NHC, especially starting next week. 41 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Other than a few isolated shra between the coast and I-10, we start the late afternoon / early evening quiet across the region. The chance of MVFR cigs/vis will begin to increase after 06Z and especially after 09Z. The current vis forecast in the TAF is relatively conservative relative to some of the latest model guidance. We would like to see a little more data before dropping forecast vis further. For now, we think the best chance of MVFR conditions tomorrow morning will be north, west, and southwest of the Houston terminals (IAH/HOU). However, trends will need to be monitored closely for possible amendments. Any MVFR conditions should improve by mid-morning tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The forecast will continue to highlight light onshore winds and low seas (1-3 ft) through the next several days, including the weekend. Scattered showers and isolated storms are possible over the Gulf by the latter part of the weekend into early next week. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 77 96 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 80 89 80 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...JM MARINE...Self