Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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829 FXUS64 KHUN 240619 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A broken line of of showers and storms along/just ahead of a weak front that originated in middle TN has slowly fallen apart as it treks southward into AL. Latest CAMs suggest this trend will continue heading through the rest of the morning. While we cannot completely rule out a thunderstorm, chances are quite low (15-20%) through daybreak. Light winds throughout the early morning hours should prevent fog development. The post frontal airmass will allow for some drier air to filter into the TN Valley. However, it will still be quite warm this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon highs are still expected to reach into the mid 90s, but with dewpoints mixing out into the low to mid 60s, heat index values only top out in the mid to upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A seasonable summer evening is forecast for tonight with light winds and clear skies allowing for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s. The drier air should limit any fog development overnight. On Tuesday, the 500mb ridge begins to build back in across the Southeast. This will help advect in from the west a more moist and warm airmass into the area. Afternoon highs both Tuesday and Wednesday soar into the mid to upper 90s. The good news is that dewpoints should remain in the upper 60s each afternoon, keeping heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100F...below heat advisory criteria. The one caveat to this forecast is on Wednesday as a shortwave moving across the Ohio River Valley will drop a frontal boundary south into the TN Valley. This will bring the greatest chance in the 7 day forecast for showers and storms. Model guidance is still uncertain with the timing of this front and as a result kept the NBM warmer temperatures. If the clouds and precip arrive earlier, Wednesday highs will likely be a few degrees cooler. Showers and storms linger into Thursday as the front is slow to progress south and east out of the area. Unfortunately, rainfall amounts remain between 0.25-0.5 inches, which likely will not help out much with the recent dry conditions. Due to precip and increased cloud cover afternoon highs on Thursday only peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Heading into the weekend, the upper level ridge shifts further to the east. This brings back southwesterly flow and as a result, hot and humid conditions are expected with highs Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in the mid to upper 90s. We will have to watch how high the dewpoints remain each afternoon, but the current forecast does call for some low 70 degree dewpoints. This would bring the potential for triple digit heat indices and perhaps above 105F (heat advisory criteria). However, this evening`s suite of models indicate the potential for more diurnal convection, which will limit the heating each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Variable winds around 4 knots are expected much of the TAF period at the terminals. This should keep fog at bay at the terminals. A tempo group was included between 6Z and 9Z in case scattered storms make it to the terminals. MVFR CIGS and some gusts to 20 knots could occur if a -TSRA impacts the terminals. A front should pass through the terminals just after daybreak, providing predominantly northerly winds at the terminals of 5 knots to 10 knots. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....GH AVIATION...KTW