730
FXUS64 KHUN 250311
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1011 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 954 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

NNW flow aloft of 10-20 knots will diminish considerably over the
course of the night, as a 500-mb shortwave trough ejects
northeastward off the coast of New England and the eastern edge of
a strong subtropical high attempts to build back into the central
Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will
remain centered across the southern Appalachians and provide
light/variable winds, which will work in conjunction with clear
skies to allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s (E) and m-u
60s (W) by sunrise. Although not explicitly indicated in the
grids, conditions will be favorable for the development of patchy
fog (mainly in the river valleys of northeast AL) during a brief
window between 10-13Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

An upper shortwave looks to form over the midwest on Tuesday and
evolve into a more substantial shortwave trough by the time it
moves over the Tennessee and Ohio valleys Wednesday
afternoon/evening. This feature will then be pushed eastward as
the aforementioned ridge nudges its way back into the Southeast
for Thursday and late week. Surface high pressure will maintain
its hold over the Appalachians until Wednesday, when a cold front
is slated to traverse over the region. However, another round of
high pressure will be right on its heels digging down into the
Ohio Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley for Thursday.

What does this mean for sensible weather? This will translate to
dry, hot weather until showers/storms return on Wednesday (low to
medium chance, 25-45%). At this time, severe weather is not
anticipated with this activity due to meager shear (10-20 knots);
although, there is plenty of instability. This will be monitored
with subsequent updates and model runs in case things change.
Storm total rainfall continues to look low as well, with up to
half an inch of rain forecast at the most in some spots. Model
PWATs range between 1.6-1.8 inches or so, which would generally be
between the 75-90th percentiles when comparing these values with
Birmingham sounding climatology (if focusing on the higher end of
that range, between 1.7-1.8 inches). This will be monitored as
well, but trends have not favored much rainfall out of this
system. Low chances (15-25%) of showers/storms linger on
Thursday, but dry weather is anticipated once again Thursday
evening and into Friday.

As for temperatures, highs are forecast to rise into the mid to
upper 90s on Tuesday for most areas. Some spots over northeast
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee may be cooler, in the lower
to mid 90s. Heat indices will range between 98-104 degrees west of
I-65, with around 90-97 degrees east. While this is below Heat
Advisory criteria, please be cautious and remember heat safety!
Wear loose-fitting, light-colored clothing, take frequent breaks
in the shade, and stay hydrated! Also, take caution for your pets
as well! Be cautious of the hot pavement, make sure they have
ample water and shade, and limit their time outdoors. It will be
hot on Wednesday as well, with similar forecast values for
temperatures and heat indices; but, rain chances could dampen the
effects of the heat a bit. It`ll then be slightly cooler on
Thursday after cold FROPA, with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Lows will mainly be in the lower to mid 70s through Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Heading into the weekend, the upper level ridge shifts further to
the east. This brings back southwesterly flow and as a result,
hot and humid conditions are expected with highs Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday in the mid to upper 90s. We will have to watch how
high the dewpoints remain each afternoon, but the current forecast
does call for some low 70 degree dewpoints. This would bring the
potential for triple digit heat indices and perhaps above 105F
(heat advisory criteria). However, this evening`s suite of models
indicate the potential for more diurnal convection, which will
limit the heating each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast during the period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...17