Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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725 FXUS64 KHUN 241427 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 927 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 926 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A post-frontal air mass should continue to advect drier air into the region from the north. This should drop the dewpoints into the 60s across much of the TN Valley. Highs are expected to reach the mid-90s by mid-afternoon under mostly sunny to clear skies. With dewpoints mixing into the low to mid-60s, heat indices are forecast to be around the mid to late-90s, later in the day. Make sure to take breaks and drink plenty of water. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A seasonable summer evening is forecast for tonight with light winds and clear skies allowing for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s. The drier air should limit any fog development overnight. On Tuesday, the 500mb ridge begins to build back in across the Southeast. This will help advect in from the west a more moist and warm airmass into the area. Afternoon highs both Tuesday and Wednesday soar into the mid to upper 90s. The good news is that dewpoints should remain in the upper 60s each afternoon, keeping heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100F...below heat advisory criteria. The one caveat to this forecast is on Wednesday as a shortwave moving across the Ohio River Valley will drop a frontal boundary south into the TN Valley. This will bring the greatest chance in the 7 day forecast for showers and storms. Model guidance is still uncertain with the timing of this front and as a result kept the NBM warmer temperatures. If the clouds and precip arrive earlier, Wednesday highs will likely be a few degrees cooler. Showers and storms linger into Thursday as the front is slow to progress south and east out of the area. Unfortunately, rainfall amounts remain between 0.25-0.5 inches, which likely will not help out much with the recent dry conditions. Due to precip and increased cloud cover afternoon highs on Thursday only peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Heading into the weekend, the upper level ridge shifts further to the east. This brings back southwesterly flow and as a result, hot and humid conditions are expected with highs Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in the mid to upper 90s. We will have to watch how high the dewpoints remain each afternoon, but the current forecast does call for some low 70 degree dewpoints. This would bring the potential for triple digit heat indices and perhaps above 105F (heat advisory criteria). However, this evening`s suite of models indicate the potential for more diurnal convection, which will limit the heating each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions with light northerly winds are expected through the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM....Serre SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....GH AVIATION...GH