Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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805 FXUS64 KHUN 242340 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Upper level ridging over the Plains looks to build east over the region tonight. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will also settle over the Appalachians through tonight as well. This will lead to a mostly clear sky night with no rain in the forecast. Winds will be light, but dew points will be a few degrees lower due to cold FROPA earlier this morning. Therefore, confidence in fog development is low. Low temperatures are expected to dip into the 60s for most locations late tonight. Enjoy the evening! && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 An upper shortwave looks to form over the midwest on Tuesday and evolve into a more substantial shortwave trough by the time it moves over the Tennessee and Ohio valleys Wednesday afternoon/evening. This feature will then be pushed eastward as the aforementioned ridge nudges its way back into the Southeast for Thursday and late week. Surface high pressure will maintain its hold over the Appalachians until Wednesday, when a cold front is slated to traverse over the region. However, another round of high pressure will be right on its heels digging down into the Ohio Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley for Thursday. What does this mean for sensible weather? This will translate to dry, hot weather until showers/storms return on Wednesday (low to medium chance, 25-45%). At this time, severe weather is not anticipated with this activity due to meager shear (10-20 knots); although, there is plenty of instability. This will be monitored with subsequent updates and model runs in case things change. Storm total rainfall continues to look low as well, with up to half an inch of rain forecast at the most in some spots. Model PWATs range between 1.6-1.8 inches or so, which would generally be between the 75-90th percentiles when comparing these values with Birmingham sounding climatology (if focusing on the higher end of that range, between 1.7-1.8 inches). This will be monitored as well, but trends have not favored much rainfall out of this system. Low chances (15-25%) of showers/storms linger on Thursday, but dry weather is anticipated once again Thursday evening and into Friday. As for temperatures, highs are forecast to rise into the mid to upper 90s on Tuesday for most areas. Some spots over northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee may be cooler, in the lower to mid 90s. Heat indices will range between 98-104 degrees west of I-65, with around 90-97 degrees east. While this is below Heat Advisory criteria, please be cautious and remember heat safety! Wear loose-fitting, light-colored clothing, take frequent breaks in the shade, and stay hydrated! Also, take caution for your pets as well! Be cautious of the hot pavement, make sure they have ample water and shade, and limit their time outdoors. It will be hot on Wednesday as well, with similar forecast values for temperatures and heat indices; but, rain chances could dampen the effects of the heat a bit. It`ll then be slightly cooler on Thursday after cold FROPA, with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Lows will mainly be in the lower to mid 70s through Thursday night. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Heading into the weekend, the upper level ridge shifts further to the east. This brings back southwesterly flow and as a result, hot and humid conditions are expected with highs Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in the mid to upper 90s. We will have to watch how high the dewpoints remain each afternoon, but the current forecast does call for some low 70 degree dewpoints. This would bring the potential for triple digit heat indices and perhaps above 105F (heat advisory criteria). However, this evening`s suite of models indicate the potential for more diurnal convection, which will limit the heating each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions will exist at the HSV/MSL terminals this forecast period, with mostly clear skies and lgt/vrbl winds. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...GH AVIATION...70/DD