Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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969 FXUS64 KHUN 290803 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Dangerous heat will begin to build into the Tennessee Valley later today with high pressure just to the east in control of our weather. The combination of highs in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s will create peak heat index values between 105-108 degrees across much of the region in the afternoon. As a result, we have hoisted a Heat Advisory for much of southern middle Tennessee and northern Alabama (including the Florence/Muscle Shoals-Decatur-Huntsville metro areas) from Noon to 8 PM CDT. Those with outdoor plans should take extra precautions due to this dangerous heat. Abundant moisture in place will allow for the potential for some low chances (20-30%) for diurnally driven showers/storms in the mid/late afternoon. This activity will quickly wane by the evening with the loss of the sun. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 We`ll be in store for another very warm night across the Tennessee Valley, with lows in the mid 70s in most locations. Sunday also looks to be another hot/humid day across the area, with highs in the low to mid 90s once again. The combination of mid 70s dewpoints and these high temperatures will once again push heat index values close to Advisory criteria. However, cloud cover will be more of a factor on Sunday as a weak front pushes into the region and expect mostly cloud conditions and medium/high chances of showers and thunderstorms to develop later in the day in accordance with the front moving in and peak heating. Depending on how much the atmosphere can destabilize, a couple strong storms can`t be ruled out. A slightly "cooler" and drier air mass will arrive early next week in wake of the front for Monday and a noticeably more comfortable night will be in store with lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The heat and humidity will return mid to late week, including the 4th of July holiday as a strong mid/upper ridge will build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, extending southward into the Tennessee Valley. This will keep stalled boundaries (and their focus for convection) well south along the Gulf Coast and allow a hot/humid air mass to settle into the region. This will push daytime highs into the mid to upper 90s and heat index values easily into the 100-105 degree range by Tuesday and potentially above 105 degrees (Advisory criteria) for Wednesday and Thursday (4th of July). Additional heat products may be needed later next week. Low/medium chances (20-40%) for diurnally driven convection will be present each day, but most locations will remain dry. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each terminal through the period, with scattered decks of passing mid- level clouds and light SE winds. Low chances for TSRA/SHRA are forecast this afternoon, but confidence was too low to mention in the TAF at this time. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>008-016. TN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP.24 SHORT TERM....AMP.24 LONG TERM....AMP.24 AVIATION...AMP