500
FXUS64 KHUN 021701
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 949 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Early morning rain showers have shifted off to the ESE and dense
low stratus have begun to break up somewhat as drier air has
helped to erode this cloud cover. This partial clearing, along
with the June sunshine, should help make for a much warmer day
than yesterday as temperatures recover and climb into the low to
mid 80s by the afternoon. Some low (20-30%) chances for showers
and storms will remain in the forecast as this activity could
redevelop along remnant outflow boundaries during this afternoon.
However, coverage will be extremely limited as most locations will
remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The main focus tonight will be on fog, as clearing skies and
light winds combined with wet near sfc soils will be favorable for
at least patchy dense fog. Will have to monitor conditions
closely later this evening and overnight as a Dense Fog Advisory
may be needed. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s before
we begin on a warming trend as upper ridging moves into the area.
High pressure will remain dominant over the area on Monday,
keeping the forecast dry with afternoon highs in the upper 80s.
Southwest H85 flow will help advect a moist and warm sectored
airmass into the area, Monday night and a series of upper
disturbances will bring rain and thunder chances back into the
forecast Tuesday afternoon. Will have to keep our eyes out for
localized flooding during this timeframe as well, as PWATs climb
back near 1.8" and will make for efficient rainfall producers.
Some questions still remain on how much synoptic lift will be in
place to support more than scattered coverage, so have stuck with
blended guidance and a 30-50% PoP Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Low rain/thunder chances will linger overnight Tuesday, with low
temperatures near 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Heading into mid week, a deepening upper level low riding along the
U.S. and Canadian border just NW of the Great Lakes will run into a
blocking pattern. The associated sfc low will have a cold front that
extends down the MS Valley. A shortwave will swing through before
the cold front does, providing medium chances (40-60%) Wednesday
morning, and coverage increases to high chances (60-70%) in the
afternoon ahead of the front. Showers and storms will linger into
Thursday, lesser in coverage though, until the front itself passes
through. Forecast soundings show pockets of instability but weak
shear with PWAT forecasts up to 1.8-1.9" (75th percentile or higher).
At this time, hazards are heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Will note
that WPC has the TN Valley in a Marginal ERO again on Wednesday, so
will watch for flooding potential.

Behind the front, cooler and drier air will filter in, decreasing
cloud cover and dewpoints. Temps will only be a tad cooler, with
highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the lower 60s at night both
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Have added a TEMPO between 18-22z at both terminals for MVFR/IFR
conditions from a TSRA that may impact either site through the
late afternoon. By the early evening, convection will wane and a
return to VFR conditions will prevail. The one exception may be
late tonight into early Monday morning when some patchy fog may
cause reductions at both sites briefly. Did not have enough
confidence to mention at this time, but future forecasts may need
to add a mention in should confidence increase.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...AMP.24