536
FXUS64 KHUN 302358
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
658 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

After the ongoing medium-high chances of showers/storms (40-75%)
subside in the wake of a cold front later this evening, dry
conditions are forecast to prevail overnight throughout the TN
Valley. Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid to
upper 60s- providing a bit of relief from the heat that has been
ongoing through the weekend. Mostly clear skies and light winds
will allow a low chance of patchy fog formation in areas that
received rainfall this afternoon and along large bodies of water.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

After the aforementioned cold front moves through, sfc high
pressure moves into our area Monday. An upper level ridge
continues to build into the Tennessee Valley through the week-
bringing above normal temperatures and an increased HeatRisk. Our
primary concern will be triple digit heat indices as we move into
the mid week with heat indices hitting as high as 107 on
Wednesday. HeatRisk is forecast to be `major` by Wednesday-
affecting anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration as well as likely causing impacts in some health
systems, heat-sensitive industries, and infrastructure. This is
due to a combination of above-normal temperatures as well as
prolonged heat. Low chances of showers/storms (30% or less) may
provide little relief from the sun Wednesday due to diurnal
heating as sfc high pressure continues eastward toward the
Carolinas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The previously mentioned upper ridge is shown to persist through
midweek, but begin to flatten by Thursday night as a shortwave
trough makes its way over the north-central CONUS and into the
Great Lakes region. This feature looks to amplify somewhat down
through Texas on Saturday and push the ridge east over the
Carolinas. The surface high will push off the eastern seaboard and
also be stretched down over the Deep South from midweek through
the first part of the weekend. Meanwhile, a low pressure system
looks to move towards the Great Lakes region on Saturday, with an
associated cold front traversing the Mississippi Valley.

For sensible weather, expect a return of shower and storm chances
by midweek. Low chances (15-25%) of showers and storms are
forecast on Wednesday then become medium (50-60%) by Friday
afternoon. Low to medium (30-50%) chances of showers/storms then
round out the week for Saturday. While guidance suggests ample
instability through the period, shear is meager through at least
Friday. However, shear looks to increase to around 20-25 knots on
Saturday, which could mean the potential for some stronger storms.
Ultimately, as this is at the tail end of the forecast time
frame, we will just keep an eye on trends for now.

We will also keep an eye on temperatures, as highs are forecast
to reach the lower to mid 90s Wednesday through Friday. With
elevated moisture returning to the region during this time, this
will result in heat indices in the triple digits (100-108 degrees
Thursday and Friday especially). Highs then looks to be a touch
cooler on Saturday, but it will still be hot. Lows from mid to
late week are also forecast to range in the lower to mid 70s each
night for much of the area. We will continue to monitor these
trends for the potential of needing to issue heat products.
Regardless, please be safe in the heat this summer. Take frequent
breaks in the shade, wear loose-fitting and light-colored
clothing, and stay hydrated!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at
both terminals with northerly winds slowly veering to the
northeast. Cloud cover should also thin by Monday afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25