594
FXUS64 KHUN 150011
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
711 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A band of showers persists from west central GA through north
central AL into western middle TN. This is along a
trough/convergence axis extending from a 5h low center near
Memphis. The models continue to shift the trough axis just a bit
further south tonight, which should shift the heaviest rain axis
with it. However, a stout 8h southeasterly low level jet of
25-35kt will continue to feed potential shower bands which could
still produce moderate rainfall at times, mainly over our far
southwest counties. Can`t totally rule out a thunderstorm or two,
but have kept this chance low. We will most likely allow the
Flood Watch to expire at 00Z unless conditions change.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The trough axis edges a bit further south on Sunday. The 8h low
will also drops into southwest MS. This will veer 8h and surface
flow to a more easterly direction, which will begin to advect
drier low level air into the region. Low PoPs will continue
through early Monday, but rain amounts will be on the light side.
Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 70s southwest to lower
80s northeast where sunshine will break out. By Monday, all areas
should reach the lower 80s in valley locations when dew points
should drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Will welcome a less active pattern for the long term period, as
high pressure and northerly flow helps anchor drier air over the
Tennessee Valley. Temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 80s
each day through Friday, with cooler overnight lows falling into
the upper 50s/lower 60s each night. Those missing the sun will
enjoy bright and sunny skies each day!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

An area of moderate to at times heavy showers were forming and
moving to the NW from near Anniston/Gadsden, along the TN River and
across NW AL. Flight minimums within and near this band of showers
have been reduced to IFR, at times lower from reduced CIG/VSBY
accompanying the heavier showers. The axis of these shower should
slowly move to the SW during the course of the evening/late night,
resulting in lesser impacts across NW AL. VFR condition are expected
outside of these showers. Otherwise, expect ESE winds of 5-15kt
tonight. The winds should increase into the 10-20kt range and gusty
at times on Sun. VFR conditions should return across much of the
area by late Sun morning as somewhat drier air filters in.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ001>008-016.

TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RSB