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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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017 FXUS63 KICT 242345 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 645 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon - Thunderstorms, some strong or severe, possible Tuesday afternoon - A cooler, hot day Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A strong ridge of high pressure continues to build into the region this afternoon. Ample moisture is also present and is continuing to advect into the region. This has created a hot and humid environment this afternoon with heat advisory criteria. There is enough moisture to permit thunderstorm activity this afternoon but mid level temperatures at 700mb are a little on the warm side (13- 17C) which is not very conducive to thunderstorm activity. This will keep the chances for thunderstorms to a minimum if any occur at all. Western Kansas and Central Kansas are the most likely areas to see any thunderstorm activity today if it occurs. Tuesday, the ridging will continue allowing dangerously hot temperatures during the afternoon. Heat indices again are expected to remain in the 104- 109 range. The main difference is there may be some morning cloud cover around slowing the speed of the temperatures rise but still expect temperatures to breech the century mark across the CWA. By the afternoon and into the evening, a weak cold front will be pushing into the region. This will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm chances across the CWA look better for Tuesday afternoon as the 700mb temps look to be a little cooler (10-12C) which will help the convection get going. Shear profiles are not very good and upper level winds are okay (50-60kt range) so the chances for wide spread severe weather is not good. Lapse rates and low level moisture are very good though and with the cooler 700mb temperatures, there is a good potential for a few strong storms to develop. Additionally, PW values are in the 1.5 to 2 inch range which will well above normal for this time of year. This indicates any storms that develop will be capable very heavy rain and brief down burst winds approaching 60 mph. Wednesday, the front will move past and allow some cooler and drier air to move into the region. While the temperatures will be "cooler" it will still be a hot day with temperatures in the 90s across the region. Thursday and into the weekend look to remain unsettled with a couple of systems coming through. This will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the extended with temperatures continuing to be above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Main aviation concern will be storm chances tonight. Currently have storms ongoing over northwest KS/SW Nebraska with this activity coming out of Eastern CO. Confidence is low on how far east this activity will make it as main forcing looks to a surface trough across NW KS, but is not expected to move much. In addition there is likely a weak MCV embeded in the convection. However, for now will leave mention of storms out tonight until storms prove they can continue tracking east in the absence of decent forcing. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Record highs for Monday and Tuesday: Today (Record) | Today`s Highs Wichita 103 (1980) 102 Salina 107 (1937) 103 Chanute 105 (1918) 100 Russell 110 (2012) 104 Tuesday (Record)|Tuesday`s Highs Wichita 107 (1911) 101 Salina 114 (1911) 101 Chanute 104 (1933) 97 Russell 108 (2012) 101 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...RBL CLIMATE...ELM