Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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268 FXUS63 KICT 190546 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Few storms this evening west of I-135 with storms also possible Thursday afternoon and evening for locations along and especially east of the KS Turnpike. Severe storms will be possible both this evening and Thursday afternoon/evening. - Shower/storm chances expected to increase this weekend, especially for the Sat evening through Sun time frame. - Highs Thursday afternoon will be around 100 across parts of south central KS into the Flint Hills. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Currently have an upper low spinning over eastern MT and about to move into the Northern High Plains with another upper impulse just off of the Central CA coast. At the surface, dryline/surface trough extends from southwest Nebraska and across far Western KS with unseasonably rich low level moisture east of this feature. Storms are still expected to develop late this afternoon along the surface trough/dryline which will be along or just west of our western flank with this activity slowly working east into the early evening hours. There will be plenty of instability and fairly marginal shear in place, with hail up to quarter size and downburst winds possible. Confidence is increasing in another round of storms Thu afternoon and evening for mainly the Flint Hills into southeast KS as the surface trough continues to slide east. Moisture and instability will once again be fairly impressive, with deep layer shear a bit more impressive than it will be this evening with effective deep layer shear around 35kts. So current thinking is that at least half dollar size hail will be possible and if current trends continue, could see up to golf ball. Winds will veer around to the southwest near or just behind the surface trough Thu afternoon which will setup some downslope. This will help highs soar to the upper 90s to around 100 across mainly south central KS into the Flint Hills. The upper low that is just off of the CA coast will track east for the next couple of days and by Sat morning will be tracking over the Desert Southwest and into the Central Rockies Sat night. At the same time a cold front is expected to sag south and by 00z Sun will extend from northwest KS into eastern Nebraska. Current thinking is that this is where the higher shower and storm chances will be situated with this front sagging south through Sunday. So while precip chances will ramp up this weekend, at this time it appears the better chances for widespread heavy rain will be across northern KS into Nebraska. By 00z Mon the upper impulse will be lifting into the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley with some additional energy digging south across the Northern/Central Rockies. The main story for the start of next week with be a return to much cooler temps with highs in the 70s for both Mon and Tue. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A rogue elevated storm or two will be hard to rule out during the overnight hours with some accas lingering over much of the area on the eastern periphery of the nocturnal LLJ. Cloud bases are around 11k ft so VFR is expected to prevail but a brief shower may drive visibilities to MVFR briefly. LLWS conditions are expected to linger trough around 12Z-13Z at our central KS TAF sites. A weak frontal boundary/trough axis at the surface will build eastward to around the Kansas Turnpike late this afternoon before stalling. Wind in it`s wake will shift to the southwest. Winds will gradually veer to the northwest as we move into the evening and overnight hours over central and portions of south central KS while southerly winds will prevail in southeast KS. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...MWM