599
FXUS62 KILM 301905
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
305 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through Monday bringing a reprieve from the
heat and humidity into mid week. Excessive heat is likely to
return again though late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pre frontal trough lighting up this afternoon just to
the northwest poised to move into the area in the next little bit as
more sporadic  convection is slowly developing elsewhere. This line
will struggle in time as it presses south with less than conducive
conditions aloft but eventually will make it through. The severe
potential not overly impressive with little shear in place and the
instability of course wanes in time as well. A second line/area of
convection will move across early Monday AM with the actual front
and press south. Its worth noting the higher pops overall tonight
represent the possibility convection fills in somewhat between two
expected pushes. The NPW/Heat Advisory will continue but may need to
be cancelled early with any sustained areas of convection with its
heavy lifting already accomplished.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Unseasonably cooler and drier through the period

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: A rather unseasonably cooler and drier air mass is expected
to prevail through the period as high pressure builds in from the
north behind a departing cold front to the south. No major changes
were made to the previous forecast but we did trend dewpoints down a
tad with 50s likely inland, which will certainly be a nice
reprieve from the recent mugginess. We`re still carrying some
rain chances Monday night, mainly near the coast, and then along
the SC coast Tue/Tue night where moisture convergence will be
greatest.

Temps should stay below normal through the period with highs mostly
in the mid 80s Tuesday and lows mainly in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights:
*Excessive heat/humidity returns late week

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: High pressure at the surface will shift off the eastern
seaboard Wednesday with a cold front possibly approaching Sunday.
Meanwhile ridging should also prevail aloft. This pattern suggests
high temps and near to below normal rain chances most of the period.
Heat indices of 105+ degrees are possible inland starting Thursday
but more likely across the entire area starting Friday. Thus,
Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings will be pretty
likely Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All sites currently VFR but some challenges are ahead. A
couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across later
this afternoon and overnight with more confidence with FLO and LBT
seeing sustained thunder and addressed with tempo groups. Thunder
and even overall activity are more uncertain across coastal areas as
the cold front/pre frontal trough takes some time to move across
perhaps losing instability and or intensity. Addressed this scenario
with VCTS. Ceilings should dip to MVFR late (maybe isolated IFR) in
the period/early Monday morning in the wake of the main activity.

Extended Outlook...The approaching cold front will bring low
cigs to all terminals on Monday and scattered to numerous
showers and storms through the day, with the highest confidence
at the coastal terminals. Depending on how far south the front
reaches, brief MVFR cig or vis flight restrictions may occur at
times well into Monday night for the coastal terminals.
Otherwise, for Tuesday through Thursday, VFR should dominate.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Southwest winds of 10-15 knots perhaps
wobbling a knot or two above will develop and or persist tonight
ahead of the front. Winds will shift to northeast during the
day Monday and increase ending up around 15 knots. Significant
seas will be 2-4 feet throughout the period.

Monday night through Friday...A cold front will move through
the central Carolina nearshore waters Monday with high pressure
building from the north through Wednesday. The high will then
shift farther east bringing a return of more typical summertime
winds from the south. Winds and possibly even seas could reach
marginal Small Craft Advisory levels Monday night/early Tuesday
behind the departing cold front as high pressure builds in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although there has been isolated heavy rainfall in spots over
the past few days, the current U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate
drought (D1) exists across portions of eastern North and South
Carolina. This drought has developed due to 60 day rainfall
totals running well below normal plus recent hot, dry weather.
Fortunately, widespread soaking rain appears possible tonight
with 1 to 2 inches generally forecast. Hot and mostly dry
weather should then redevelop late in the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RJB/SHK
FIRE WEATHER...