510
FXUS62 KILM 180219
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1019 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain-free and seasonably warm conditions for much of this week
as high pressure sits well offshore. A system moving out of the
Bahamas could bring rain chances Friday before heat builds over
the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Via sat imagery trends, thin cirrus to move overhead overnight.
And given the stratocu deck over the adjacent and offshore Atl
Waters a bit more widespread, the low level trajectories to have
it periodically move onshore and inland overnight into Tue
morning. With dry low levels inland, this shield should slowly
dissipate as it moves further inland overnight given the high
pressure aloft with accompanying dry air and subsidence. Very
little tweaks applied to min temps, mainly a degree or 2 lower
across the far western portions of the ILM CWA, ie along and
west of the I-95 corridor. Marine, Easterly winds to prevail at
10-15 kt overnight with a predominate easterly wave/swell at 6
to 7 second periods, occasionally up to 8 seconds given the
persistence and fetch.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The center of a mid/upper ridge over NC this afternoon will
transition northward to the Mid-Atlantic region through Tuesday.
At the surface, flow will remain generally onshore as a result
of high pressure off the NE CONUS. This will keep temps pretty
close to climatology for mid-June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Pretty quiet and seasonable through the period. The large mid
level ridge will be located to our north while its surface
reflection will be further east. This leads to deep layer
onshore flow and a deep blue sky as none of the inland
particulates present in mid level westerly flow will be a
factor. At the base of the subsidence inversion there may be a
stray, flat diurnal altocu at about 7kft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge to our N during the short term splits, the
main center backing to the west. This leaves a weakness in our
H5 height field that according to guidance still won`t lead to
rain chances while temperatures remain seasonably warm. Friday
offers up some uncertain rain chances, hinging almost
exclusively on the system that moves out of the Bahamas that
could have tropical characteristics even as it remains very
weak. The latter part of the period will see a weak congealing
of the H5 ridge while surface flow stays weak. Inland locations
should warm into the mid/upper 90s while the marine layer
tempers the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR to dominate the terminals thru the 24 hr period. The
exception will be the coastal terminals where onshore movement
of stratocu could result in brief periodic MVFR ceilings in the
2500-3000 ft level. Otherwise, an upper ridge centered over
the NC-SC vicinity will keep convection suppressed for the next
several days. Surface high pressure will remain centered off
the NE States, continuing to ridge SW across the Carolinas.
This positioning will maintain an onshore flow across the
terminals, hiest speeds during the day aided by a resultant
wind, aka sea breeze. Boundary layer winds and dry low level
air will keep fog/low stratus at bay tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Surface high pressure off the NE CONUS will
maintain onshore flow through the period. A 1 ft SE swell every
12 seconds will persist, and a 2-3 ft easterly wind wave will
build to 3-4 ft through the day Tuesday.

Wednesday night through Sunday...  A very long fetch of easterly
flow will be present for most of the period around the south side
of an east-west oriented high offshore. Guidance has backed off
just shy of saying that this swell/wind wave combo yields
advisory-worth 6 ft seas Wednesday or even Thursday but flags
could be needed as the Bahama system approaches and its track is
highly uncertain. Hopefully details become clearer in future
model runs. A little bit of variability creeps into the winds
Saturday behind the system, likely disrupting the swell energy
as well.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Other - Rip Currents:
A building easterly swell will maintain an elevated rip current
risk for east and southeast facing beaches in our area through
(at least) the end of the week. A high risk of rip currents is
forecasted for Pender, New Hanover and Georgetown county
beaches, along with Myrtle Beach southward in Horry, Wednesday
through Friday. The south facing beaches of Brunswick county
(east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong east to west
longshore currents these days due to easterly swell and winds
versus strong rip currents. Breaking wave heights approach 6
feet at east-facing beaches late Thursday through early Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
UPDATE...DCH/CRM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB/CRM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VAO