055
FXUS62 KILM 210547
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
147 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Forecast dries out completely just in time for the weekend,
with high pressure dominating. Temperatures linger near or just
above seasonal norms through early next week. Next appreciable
rain chances look to return by the middle of next week with the
next frontal system.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast updated to extend coastal flood headlines due to high
confidence in reaching criteria midday tomorrow...moderate
flooding near the WLON7 gauge and minor flooding along the
beaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Weak high pressure basically east of the Appalachians remains
in control this evening although the overall column continues
to show some decent moisture. This led to good coverage of fog
and stratus this morning and should do so once again Saturday.
Moisture decreases further Saturday and weakly-forced showers
are unlikely to develop. Tonight`s lows will be in the middle
60s with highs Saturday similar to today`s values in the middle
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No major forecast changes but have slightly increased rain chances
late Sunday into Sunday night over SE NC. We`ll be sitting in
largely northerly flow coming down and around the mountains when a
shortwave looks to push through late Sunday. The issue will be the
dry mid-levels, so have increased chances but still kept areas over
land dry. Could see this changing with future updates, but not
expecting large rainfall totals regardless. Otherwise, should see
some warming ahead of this disturbance with highs Sunday getting
into the mid to upper 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to
mid 60s with slight warming and increasing cloud cover leading to
lows in the mid to upper 60s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions should remain quiet under ridging high pressure until the
middle of next week where moisture starts to increase due to a
frontal system to our west. Regardless of when the front from this
system reaches the area, expecting increasing rain chances and
warming temperatures ahead of it.

Guidance remains messy with the area of development in the Caribbean
and even moreso with the disturbance behind it. To put something out
there, ensembles seem to be agreeing that there will be some area of
low pressure of questionable strength nearing or around the Gulf of
Mexico by the end of the long term period, but this could change
with subsequent updates to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR to dominate this 06Z TAF Issuance period, except for a
small window early this morning that could yield MVFR and
possibly IFR fog conditions, mainly across the inland
terminals. At the coastal terminals, a periodic 2k or less foot
sct/bkn deck may occur. Otherwise, upper ridge axis to remain
west of the area this period. Weak sfc ridge axis to extend
down the east coast this period. Sfc pg rather on the relaxed
side, with light NE winds dominating except for weak resultant
wind, ie. sea breeze, this aftn/evening.

Extended Outlook...Dry through at least Tuesday with VFR
conditions, but early morning MVFR/IFR from fog/stratus
remains possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Persistent conditions across the coastal
waters tonight and Saturday. Winds will be from the north in a
range of 10-15 knots. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet for the
most part but may see a slight increase later Saturday with 2-4
feet.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Winds will generally be E/NE
becoming more onshore in the afternoons with the sea breeze, speeds
in the 10-15 kt range. Waveheights generally 2-3 ft with some 4
footers possible ~20 nm out from the SE NC coast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding remains a threat through the weekend into
Monday with high astronomical tides and a modest northeast
flow. The beaches seem secure for advisory criteria while
downtown Wilmington may reach warning criteria another midday
cycle or two.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107-109.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ107-109.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM