719
FXUS61 KILN 292350
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
750 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a chance of thunderstorms will continue into
tonight as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High
pressure and a cooler, drier airmass will build into the region
behind the front for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are continuing
across the area this afternoon. This initial pcpn is associated
with some mid level energy moving through the upper Ohio Valley
and a weak pre frontal trough. Morning cloud cover and poor mid
level lapse rates have so far kept most of the storms in check
across our area. Our far southeast is a little more unstable as
they have seen a bit more sunshine today so think that that area
will have the best chance for any stronger storms as we
progress through late afternoon.

Some secondary mid level energy will overspread the region late
this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front that will move
southeast into our area later tonight. As a result, will keep
some lingering chances for showers and storms into tonight
until the front moves through. Some locally heavy downpours
will remain possible as PWs will remain high ahead of the
front. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s northwest to
the low 70s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Sunday
morning across our far southeast before the front clears the
area. CAA behind the front will lead to cooler temperatures on
Sunday with highs ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the
lower 80s in the southeast. We should also see some cu develop
in the CAA for partly cloudy skies on Sunday. These cu should
dissipate heading into Sunday evening with mostly clear skies
expected Sunday night. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure passes overhead on Monday and Monday night.
Fair weather skies and below average temperatures can be expected
along with light northeasterly winds.

The surface high shifts east on Tuesday which will allow southerly
flow to redevelop over the Ohio Valley. Warm, moist air returns
along with height rises on the southwesterly winds. By Wednesday,
increasing afternoon rain chances accompany the hot, humid air over
the region. Diurnal shower/storm chances persist through most of the
week since the synoptic pattern appears slow to modify. Toward the
Friday timeframe, a weak cold front may move through the Ohio Valley
which may initially increase shower/storm chances before leading to
slight moderation in temperatures by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Thunderstorms developed in the moderately unstable airmass ahead
of an approaching cold front. The strongest storms were observed
in a bow echo segment that produced damaging winds across
portions of southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio. These storms
are showing a general weakening trend as they move into a less
favorable environment and move southeast of the TAF sites.
Thunderstorm chances decrease with VFR conditions as we head
into late evening.

The surface cold front drops southeast across the area later
tonight. This could lead to a few lingering showers and perhaps
an isold thunderstorms until the front moves through. Chances
and coverage are low - so have omitted any mention in the TAF
forecast at this time. Some MVFR cigs are possible with the
front later tonight and continue into Sunday morning before
improving back to VFR later Sunday morning. Southwest winds
ahead of the front will become northwest later tonight with the
frontal passage. These northwest winds will gust up to 20 to 25
kts on Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR