Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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290 FXUS61 KILN 290229 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1029 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm and humid air builds back in through the start of the weekend. Isolated showers return tonight, with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible through Saturday into early Saturday night. Cold front moves through Saturday night and leaves a relatively cooler and drier air mass for the end of the weekend and start of the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Extensive cloud cover will be in place overnight. Light shower activity is starting to move into western portions of the region. Additional shower activity and some thunderstorm activity will move in overnight, especially near and north of Interstate 70. With southerly flow and cloud cover overnight, expect temperatures to only drop into the lower to middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... At this juncture, CAMs still remain all over the place on how to handle PoPs for Saturday. There is growing indication that our southern counties (closer towards the OH River) struggle to get any rainfall through Saturday morning. Better chances will certainly be present for locations along/north of I-70, but there are some CAMs that still struggle to develop much precip through Saturday morning in these areas. However, have reasonable confidence to put high chance or likely PoPs given that it will be more favorable to at least get some measurable precip. Pre frontal showers/storms still expected in some capacity through Saturday afternoon. Timing/placement will be key for a number of reasons, including the severe risk potential, along with determining how high heat indicies will climb for our southern counties near the OH River. A longer period without rainfall in our south could lead to some locations near 100 degree heat indicies given that dewpoints are expected to climb into the lower to middle 70s. While no official heat headlines are out as of now, have continued with a mention in the HWO. Just be mindful that a number of locations south of I-70 will have reasonable chances to reach HI values from the middle 90s to near 100 given the very humid air mass. Severe potential will be highest in the afternoon/evening when instability is maximized, but still not overly confident on this potential for our counties. CAPE values still may exceed 2000 J/kg, but poor mid level lapse rates will hinder large hail potential. While straight-line winds would be the primary threat, a non-zero threat still exists for an isolated tornado. Shear parameters not very favorable for rotating storms in our CWA, but rather it looks better for locations ENE of us. The machine learning products tend to agree with this as well. Flooding concerns remain unlikely for us as well given the antecedent dry soils and limited indication of multiple rounds storms producing heavy rainfall for any particular location. However, it should be noted that PWATs are 150-175% of normal, so any thunderstorm will have the potential for producing very efficient rainfall. Cold front begins to move through our CWA Saturday night, but by then, forcing appears more limited and thus coverage in precip will be more limited too. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds in from the northwest on Sunday and Monday along with upper level troughing. Cool, dry air arrives with the high keeping temperatures below average for late June on northerly winds. Expect fair weather skies to start the week. The heat and humidity return on Tuesday when upper level troughing and surface high pressure shift east of the Ohio Valley. Growing chances for showers and thunderstorms start to accompany the summer- like conditions by midweek when a weak front starts approaching from the northwest. Afternoon shower and thunder chances could persist through the end of the week since the front appears very slow to progress south. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cloud cover will increase this evening as a system approaches. There will be some scattered shower activity that moves into the region overnight. There will be the potential for some thunderstorms near the northern TAF sites overnight as well. This activity will then move out of the area in the morning and there will be a brief lull or decrease in the precipitation across the TAF sites. Winds will pick up and there will be the potential for some wind gusts. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon hours on Saturday. There is some uncertainty on the coverage of activity during this time. Due to this, limited precipitation mention to VCTS. There will then be another break in the precipitation before a final round moves through after the TAF period later Saturday night. Did not add any TSRA or vsby restrictions in with thunderstorm potential at this time, however will continue to monitor to pin point best timing as details resolve with time. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible into Saturday night and then again on Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...