Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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771 FXUS61 KILN 271859 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 259 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains intact through Friday, keeping the forecast dry. Warmer temperatures arrive on Friday and into Saturday, with additional rounds of showers and storms on Saturday with an approaching system. Drier weather returns for the end of the weekend and start of the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... High pressure overspreading the Great Lakes region will be the primary driver of our weather pattern today. Northerly flow across the region will usher in relatively drier air, leading to a slight reduction in humidity/dewpoint values. Cu has developed for our entire CWA, with the best coverage along/NW of I-71. These clouds will burn off with the loss of diurnal heating. Overnight, mostly clear skies will lead to favorable radiative cooling conditions. Fog will be less favorable given the larger dewpoint depressions, so have not included a mention yet. Lows will dive into the middle 50s to near 60. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure continues to push eastward. By the morning of Friday flow will be more southeasterly, becoming southerly by the afternoon. This will subsequently push more warm and moist air into the area, with dewpoints in the upper 50s being advected alongside air temperatures in the upper 80s. South of the Ohio River, these values may be slightly higher. More partly cloudy conditions may be observed throughout the day as a result. Overnight Friday, an upper-to-mid-level disturbance will push further into the upper Midwest, increasing cloud cover as the night continues. This system will likely spur the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning hours of Saturday. Severe impacts from this broken line of convection are minimal, though marginal amounts of instability and shear could develop an isolated strong storm. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid level short wave energy will shift east across the region Saturday into Saturday with an associated cold front dropping southeast across the mid and upper Ohio Valley later Saturday night into Sunday morning. In developing southwest flow ahead of this, temperatures on Sunday will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s with surface dewpoints nudging up into the low to mid 70s. This should allow for decent destabilization through the day on Saturday, although there is a little bit of uncertainty as to how some potential lingering morning convection may affect this. As the better forcing moves in through the afternoon, expect showers and thunderstorms to become more widespread from northwest to southeast across our area through the day. Assuming we are able to destabilize enough, deep layer shear profiles would be supportive of some severe storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Damaging wind would be the main threat, although it would be tough to rule out an isolated tornado as low level shear will also be increasing through the afternoon/evening. The combination of temps and dewpoints will also lead to some heat indices up to around 100 degrees or so Saturday afternoon, especially across our southern areas. Pcpn will taper off from the northwest through Saturday night with drier air moving in behind the front through early next week. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 70s northwest to the upper 80s in the southeast, while highs on Monday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the entire area. More summer-like temperatures will return through mid week as upper level ridging builds across the southeast US. Some mid level energy moving over the ridge will lead to thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire TAF period with the exception of KLUK. River valley fog is possible tonight which could lead to minor visibility reductions at KLUK. As the high pressure shifts east low level and mid level clouds will remain sparse. The winds will shift from northerly to easterly throughout the evening, then transition to southerly winds throughout the night time hours. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday night into Saturday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Zinnbaur/Slabaugh LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Slabaugh