260
FXUS61 KILN 300238
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1038 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a chance of thunderstorms will continue into
tonight as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High
pressure and a cooler, drier airmass will build into the region
behind the front for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the northern Great
Lakes overnight into Sunday. This will drive a surface cold
front - currently over northern Indiana thru ILN/s area late
tonight into early Sunday.

Thunderstorms developed this afternoon n the moderately
unstable airmass ahead of this approaching cold front. The
strongest storms were observed in a bow echo segment that
produced damaging winds across portions of southeast Indiana and
southwest Ohio. These storms have cleared ILN/s area and
therefore the severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled.

The surface cold front drops southeast across the area later
tonight. This could lead to a few lingering showers and isolated
thunderstorms until the front moves through. A period of low
clouds will likely accompany the front and linger for several
hours in the low level CAA pattern.

Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph ahead of the front will become
northwest later tonight with the frontal passage. Lows tonight
will range from the mid 60s northwest to the low 70s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger into Sunday
morning across our far southeast before the front clears the
area. CAA behind the front will lead to cooler temperatures on
Sunday with highs ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the
lower 80s in the southeast. We should also see some cu develop
in the CAA for partly cloudy skies on Sunday. These cu should
dissipate heading into Sunday evening with mostly clear skies
expected Sunday night. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure passes overhead on Monday and Monday night.
Fair weather skies and below average temperatures can be expected
along with light northeasterly winds.

The surface high shifts east on Tuesday which will allow southerly
flow to redevelop over the Ohio Valley. Warm, moist air returns
along with height rises on the southwesterly winds. By Wednesday,
increasing afternoon rain chances accompany the hot, humid air over
the region. Diurnal shower/storm chances persist through most of the
week since the synoptic pattern appears slow to modify. Toward the
Friday timeframe, a weak cold front may move through the Ohio Valley
which may initially increase shower/storm chances before leading to
slight moderation in temperatures by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Thunderstorms developed in the moderately unstable airmass ahead
of an approaching cold front. The strongest storms were observed
in a bow echo segment that produced damaging winds across
portions of southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio. These storms
are showing a general weakening trend as they move into a less
favorable environment and move southeast of the TAF sites.
Thunderstorm chances decrease with VFR conditions as we head
into late evening.

The surface cold front drops southeast across the area later
tonight. This could lead to a few lingering showers and perhaps
an isold thunderstorms until the front moves through. Chances
and coverage are low - so have omitted any mention in the TAF
forecast at this time. Some MVFR cigs are possible with the
front later tonight and continue into Sunday morning before
improving back to VFR later Sunday morning. Southwest winds
ahead of the front will become northwest later tonight with the
frontal passage. These northwest winds will gust up to 20 to 25
kts on Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR