834
FXUS61 KILN 271758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
158 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build south and east into the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley today, bringing drier weather. The high will
then move east of the area tonight and Friday. Moisture will
return ahead of a cold front Friday night into Saturday. This
will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
along with humid conditions. High pressure is expected to build
back into the region for Sunday and Monday, returning drier and
cooler conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure overspreading the Great Lakes region will be the
primary driver of our weather pattern today. Northerly flow
across the region will usher in relatively drier air, leading to
a slight reduction in humidity/dewpoint values. There will be
plenty of sunshine, but cu development will continue through
the rest of the morning and afternoon hours. Better cloud
coverage expected along/north of I-70.

Highs will reach the upper 70s to middle 80s across the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The center of the high will move east to the eastern Great
Lakes tonight. Low level flow will gradually veer from the
north, then to the northeast, then east. This will keep dry air
in place. Other than some higher level clouds spilling in from
the west, it should be mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows will
range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.

On Friday, the low level flow will become southerly as the high
continues to push away to our east. This will not only bring an
increase in dewpoints but air temperatures as well. Skies will
be partly cloudy with an increase in clouds occurring late from
the west as a mid level disturbance approaches. Highs will range
from the mid 80s north to around 90 along and south of the Ohio
River.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As high pressure shifts east Friday night, a mid level short
wave may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms become likely on Saturday in increasing moisture
convergence and lift ahead of a cold front. Ample instability
and wind shear should allow a few strong to severe storms.
Saturday night and Sunday will feature decreasing chances for
showers and storms as the front pushes east. High pressure
settling across the Great Lakes is forecast to bring a stretch
of dry weather Monday and Tuesday. The next cold front brings
back the threat for showers and storms on Wednesday.

Temperatures will be very warm to start the period, with highs
Saturday in the mid 80s to low 90s. Some locations in the south
may experience heat indices around 100. Temperatures will
retreat behind the first cold front, with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s Sunday, and the upper 70s to low 80s Monday. Heat
returns for the remainder of the long term, with highs reaching
the mid 80s to low 90s Tuesday, followed by low 90s in most
locations on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire TAF period
with the exception of KLUK. River valley fog is possible tonight
which could lead to minor visibility reductions at KLUK. As the
high pressure shifts east low level and mid level clouds will
remain sparse. The winds will shift from northerly to easterly
throughout the evening, then transition to southerly winds
throughout the night time hours.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday night into Saturday
night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Slabaugh