Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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189 FXUS63 KILX 151710 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1210 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like warmth continues through the week with highs peaking in the middle 80s to near 90. - Spotty showers (20% chance) are possible this afternoon west of I- 55, but most will stay dry. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Forecast looks on track today and no updates needed as today`s weather will pretty much mimic yesterday`s weather with us in a RexBlock pattern. Very warm highs in the upper 80s to near 90 with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon into early evening from Galesburg to Jacksonville west. Gentle east to SE winds at 6 to 12 mph. 07 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Upper analysis shows a Rex block over the eastern US with a strong 590 dm high centered over the eastern Great Lakes Region and a broad low over the southeast US. Further west a deep longwave trough is working onshore the Pacific coast, bringing a more active pattern over the Plains states this week. Little movement in the pattern over the east-central CONUS will be seen until a tropical disturbance currently located off the coast Georgia moves onshore early in the week. Strong surface ridging that extends as far west as the eastern Plains states as of today will halt the remnants of the tropical system, with it expected to become nearly stationary over Virgina/North Carolina by midweek. The weather here locally will be rather tranquil, aside from the summer-like heat we will experience through the week. Temperatures on Saturday overperformed by a few degrees so opted to raise highs for today to mimic yesterday`s values. Expect temperatures to peak in the middle 80s to near 90 this afternoon and the next several afternoons. A couple of weak upper shortwaves will traverse along the western periphery of the ridge, bringing waves of mid to high clouds. Similar to yesterday, spotty showers or storms (20% chance) may develop west of I-55 this afternoon where dewpoints will be highest. The 15.00Z HREF shows light QPF amounts ranging from a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch with any isolated activity. The HREF`s max QPF shows values up to 1 inch in spots, which wouldn`t be too shocking with the weak flow/slow storm motions. Other than isolated activity this afternoon, we look to be rather dry through the week. The previously mentioned longwave trough will move further inland and send several impulses north through the Plains states this week. Our next chance for rain doesn`t come until next weekend when a cold front approaches. However, that doesn`t look too promising at this point. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure will remain centered over the eastern Great Lakes through the period with ridging extending back across the Midwest. East to southeast winds will prevail across central illinois through the period, with winds during the day peaking around 10kt and dropping to around 5kt or less overnight. VFR conditions are expected through the period. Deubelbeiss && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$