007
FXUS63 KIWX 291121
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
721 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers with scattered storms today; some storms may be
  marginally severe with strong to locally damaging winds and
  heavy rainfall.

- Dry, cooler & less humid Sunday and Monday. Highs in the 70s.

- Very warm Tuesday through Thursday (July 4th) with highs in the
80s to around 90. Chances for showers and storms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A very moist airmass was over the area with precipitable water
values topping 2.0" per SPC mesoanalysis. These values are also at
or above the climate maxes for this time of year per SPC upper air
climatology and the GEFS ensemble situational awareness table. With
deep saturation up to 300 mb per HRRR BUFKIT, this airmass will
favor very efficient rain-producer. So far since last night, rainfall
amounts have been almost exclusively under 0.60" given the fast
northeast movement of the showers (northeast at 35 mph). Weak
upper level support and a cold front will bring additional
chances for showers and storms later today into early tonight.
Surface based CAPEs will become substantial per HRRR topping
4000 J/Kg. Given a lot of instability, high precipitable water
values but more meager 0-6 Km shear, storms are expected to
become marginally severe to possibly severe from about 1 pm EDT
through the afternoon with the arrival of the upper level
support and occurrence of daytime heating. It looks like the
greatest severe weather threat will be from damaging winds. Wet
bulb zero heights appears to be too high to favor a large hail
threat.

Much cooler and less humid air will spread over the region
behind a cool front tonight. Highs Sunday will only be around
70 to 75 with lows Sunday night dipping into the 40s near the
Michigan border. Very warm air will quickly return with highs
well into the 80s by Tuesday. Energy in the form of short waves
in the northern stream will bring chances for showers and storms
from Wednesday through the end of the week. Temperatures should
be near normal during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Moist and marginally unstable airmass supporting scattered
convection today as several weak midlevel shortwaves move
through the area. Best chances for additional storms will be at
KFWA but timing remains highly uncertain. Current storms over
central IN may strengthen a bit as they move NE later this
morning. There will then likely be a break before cold front
approaches this evening and supports another round of isolated
storms. Confidence in timing and coverage remains very low given
weak forcing and wildly inconsistent CAM solutions. Will hold
off on mentioning any evening storms for now. Otherwise some
MVFR ceilings at KSBN will likely linger through much of the
morning before mixing out.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through late Sunday
     night for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through late Sunday
     night for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...AGD