Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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385 FXUS63 KIWX 010503 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 103 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and mostly dry through Tuesday. Low chances (around 20%) for a few showers Tuesday late morning/afternoon in far northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan. - Heat and humidity substantially increase Wednesday with dewpoints in the low 70s, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Scattered showers and storms during the day. - Fourth of July forecast: Humid and warm with highs in the mid 80s. 40-60% chances for rain throughout the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Comfortable humidity, cooler temperatures, and mostly dry conditions are here to stay for the next 48 hours!Low temperatures tomorrow morning should be near 50 degrees, which is close to the record lows! July 1st daily record lows were set in 1950, with 46 degrees for Fort Wayne and 45 for South Bend. It is certainly possible many locations drop down into the upper 40s for lows amidst clear skies and light winds overnight. Surface high pressure will build in over the Great Lakes, which means July will start out dry and cool. Highs for Monday will be in the low to mid 70s. As upper level ridging begins to break down and the surface high pressure moves east, there are low chances (around 20%) for a few showers Tuesday late morning/afternoon in far northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan. The next chance for showers/storms arrives Wednesday ahead of and along a cold front. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the low 70s will yield increasing instability and moisture during the day Wednesday. Models have not come to agreement if ingredients and timing will line up, but severe weather could be possible. They may decide to wait until greater certainty is established, but I would not be surprised if SPC adds our forecast area into a Marginal Risk in the Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook that will be issued early Monday morning. In the wake of Wednesday`s cold front, the temperature forecast on Fourth of July looks to be near normal with highs in the low to mid 80s. However, there will be 40-60% chances for rain throughout the day. Don`t postpone any plans for fireworks or outdoor activities on Thursday just yet. It is possible that the rain clears out in time for evening fireworks celebrations, so check back for later forecast updates! The rest of the week and into next weekend features high temperatures in the low to mid 80s with sporadic low chances for rain/storms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 103 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Strong ridge of high pressure and very dry low levels will ensure VFR conditions through the period. Light northerly winds will veer to the southeast by this evening but remain 10 kts or less. High clouds return by the end of the period as next trough approaches. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM CDT Monday for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...AGD