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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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984 FXUS63 KIWX 011829 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 229 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures and dry conditions persist through Tuesday. - Heat and humidity substantially increase Wednesday with dewpoints in the low 70s, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and (along the US 24 corridor) heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. - A more active pattern mid to late week, with rain chances each day Wednesday to Friday. Isolated severe storms possible during the afternoon/evening on Wednesday. - Fourth of July forecast: Humid and warm with highs in the mid 80s. 40-60% chances for rain throughout the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Comfortable humidity, cooler than normal temperatures, and dry conditions will continue! Surface high pressure will build in over the Great Lakes, with a dry and cool Canadian airmass over the region. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will be in the low to mid 50s, which means it will be another great night to turn off the AC and open your windows! As upper level ridging begins to break down and the surface high pressure moves east, temperatures will start to warm up again. Highs Tuesday will be in the low to mid 80s. Heat and humidity substantially increase Wednesday with dewpoints in the low 70s, highs in the upper 80s to near 90, and heat indices in the 90s. A Heat Advisory may be needed along the US 24 corridor where heat indices will be in the upper 90s. The next chance for showers/storms arrives Wednesday afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front. All of the heat and humidity will yield increasing instability (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE per the NAM and RAP) during the day Wednesday. SPC introduced a Marginal Risk for the southeast part of our area in Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook this morning. Models have not come to agreement if ingredients and timing will line up, but severe weather could be possible. There is also some uncertainty if early morning cloud cover with inhibit destabilization. Stay tuned for updates! Thursday and Friday continue to look active with sporadic chances for showers and storms. In the wake of Wednesday`s cold front, the temperature forecast on Fourth of July looks to be near normal with highs in the low 80s. However, there will be 40-60% chances for scattered showers and storms throughout the day. Should a frontal boundary become stationary over our forecast area Thursday and Friday, heavy rainfall in any showers/storms is possible. Don`t postpone any plans for fireworks or outdoor activities on Thursday just yet but keep an eye on the forecast. The weekend features high temperatures in the low to mid 80s with drier conditions returning to the Great Lakes region. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 109 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Mostly clear skies today with easterly winds around 10 kts. Winds shift more southerly on Tuesday and mid-level clouds begin to increase ahead of the next weather system that will move in late Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Cobb