154
FXUS63 KIWX 010731
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
331 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One last cool day today with clear skies & pleasant weather.
  Highs in the 70s.

- Warmer Tuesday, but still less humid. Highs in the 80s.

- Warm and humid Wednesday through Friday with several chances
  for showers and storms. Afternoon heat indices Wednesday near
  100 degrees south of Highway 24.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A cool airmass over the area will start the day leaving very chilly
early morning temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s in its wake.
Temperatures will only reach the 70s today with few if any
clouds under large scale subsidence. Lows again tonight will be
chilly from 52 to 56 degrees. Return flow around the large high
pressure area will mix out the shallow cool air early Tuesday
and and bring much warmer air back into the area Tuesday.
Diurnal rises are likely to exceed 30 degrees in some places.
The return of high humidity will lag the initial warm air return
and arrive Wednesday - and will be coincident with increasing
chances for showers and storms.

Challenges Wednesday through Friday includes timing and coverage
of any storms, chances for heavy rain and probabilities for severe
weather. Challenges also include the chance for heat indices to
reach near 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon south of Highway 24.
Warmer and humid conditions will return Wednesday through Friday
accompanied by several chances for showers and storms. The
airmass spreading back over the area later this week will
contain high precipitable water values. GFS BUFKIT Soundings
initially favor more of a tall & thin type of environment with
CAPEs (instability <1000 J) supporting locally heavy rainfall.
However, ahead of the front Friday, the atmosphere is more
likely to be somewhat more conducive for severe storms with
greater instability. Overall, feel chances for severe storms and
flooding are rather low.

Somewhat drier/less humid air will be over the area this weekend.
The best chance for any storms will mainly be from the mid
afternoons into the evenings with diurnal/daytime heating.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Strong ridge of high pressure and very dry low levels will
ensure VFR conditions through the period. Light northerly winds
will veer to the southeast by this evening but remain 10 kts or
less. High clouds return by the end of the period as next trough
approaches.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...AGD