524
FXUS63 KIWX 302211
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
611 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and mostly dry through Tuesday. Low chances (around
  20%) for a few showers Tuesday late morning/afternoon in far
  northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan.

- Heat and humidity substantially increase Wednesday with
  dewpoints in the low 70s, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s,
  and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Scattered showers
  and storms during the day.

- Fourth of July forecast: Humid and warm with highs in the mid
  80s. 40-60% chances for rain throughout the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Comfortable humidity, cooler temperatures, and mostly dry conditions
are here to stay for the next 48 hours!Low temperatures tomorrow
morning should be near 50 degrees, which is close to the record
lows! July 1st daily record lows were set in 1950, with 46 degrees
for Fort Wayne and 45 for South Bend. It is certainly possible many
locations drop down into the upper 40s for lows amidst clear skies
and light winds overnight. Surface high pressure will build in over
the Great Lakes, which means July will start out dry and cool. Highs
for Monday will be in the low to mid 70s. As upper level ridging
begins to break down and the surface high pressure moves east, there
are low chances (around 20%) for a few showers Tuesday late
morning/afternoon in far northwest Indiana and southwest Lower
Michigan.

The next chance for showers/storms arrives Wednesday ahead of and
along a cold front. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints
in the low 70s will yield increasing instability and moisture during
the day Wednesday. Models have not come to agreement if ingredients
and timing will line up, but severe weather could be possible. They
may decide to wait until greater certainty is established, but I
would not be surprised if SPC adds our forecast area into a
Marginal Risk in the Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook that will be
issued early Monday morning.

In the wake of Wednesday`s cold front, the temperature forecast on
Fourth of July looks to be near normal with highs in the low to mid
80s. However, there will be 40-60% chances for rain throughout the
day. Don`t postpone any plans for fireworks or outdoor activities on
Thursday just yet. It is possible that the rain clears out in time
for evening fireworks celebrations, so check back for later forecast
updates!

The rest of the week and into next weekend features high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s with sporadic low chances for
rain/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR through the period with dry/stable airmass in place behind
yesterday`s cold front. Northerly winds gusting near 20 knots at
issuance will diminish this evening and veer more easterly near 8
knots during the day tomorrow.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM CDT Monday for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM EDT Monday for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Steinwedel