686
FXUS63 KIWX 211905
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
305 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms increase Sunday into Sunday
  night, bringing at least some rainfall to the area.

- A break in the rain is expected Monday into Monday evening
  before another chance arrives late Monday night into Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures will prevail through much of the period
  with highs in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Strong subsidence, well depicted on satellite, over the area
will hold strong until towards 12Z Sun as the next wave edges
into the region. Narrow area of showers/storms in western IL
should quickly meet its demise as it runs into the western edge
of the subsidence. Re-development will take place overnight
across northern MO into western IL, and then tracking towards
the region. Several models seem to suggest the bulk of this
initial shot may pass near/south of US-24 as noted by the last
shift. Despite this, models do agree on a better influx of
moisture (PWATs 1.75" or higher) and instability to set the
stage for development during the afternoon and evening hours
with the 15Z RAP looking the most reasonable at this point.
Overall severe threat quite low, but locally heavy rainfall
would be the main concern, something that is welcome if it
doesn`t runoff too fast. Will maintain likely pops through the
day. Showers/storms are likely to linger in eastern areas into
the evening and possibly overnight hours as the sfc boundary
takes its time working east.

Drier air will advect in Monday on N/NE winds as the upper level
trough digs in. The increasing flow getting things stirred up
beach wise with increasing waves and swim risk from Mi City to
Bridgman. Yet another wave moves towards the area Tuesday, but
models vary on potential impacts on the area partially due to
differences in available moisture and sfc low development that
will be starting to the west as a deeper wave resides somewhere
in eastern KS/W MO. System could bring another good shot of rain
to the area, but confidence is low on the evolution. Have kept
pops in the chc to low end likely for now. Thereafter, models
agree on the stronger wave cutting off but vary on how far west
and south. Some minor moderation in temps could occur, but most
likely we will stay below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR this period as high pressure transits the terminals.
Upstream wave will bring rain Sun aftn with MVFR conditions
likely late day.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...T