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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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694 FXUS64 KJAN 270606 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 106 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Tonight and Thursday: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a potent shortwave dropping southeast through Arkansas. This shortwave will continue dropping southeast and help develop storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail to quarter size the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. This severe storm threat will encompass our whole CWA but the severe threat will be more isolated across our southeast zones. The rain cooled air will help knock peak heat index values down as well. This will help end the Heat Advisory from the northwest that will expire at 8PM otherwise. Although the severe storm threat will end this evening with the loss of daytime heating the shortwave trough will become centered over our CWA tonight and then shift to our southeast most zones Thursday. This will prolong rain chances areawide tonight and then gradually end the chance for rain in the northwest Thursday afternoon. No additional severe storms are expected Thursday and the cloud cover along with rain chances will help hold down heat stress. Afternoon highs Thursday will be held in the 80s at most locations. /22/ Thursday night through next Wednesday... By Thursday night into Friday morning, a weak boundary is expected to continue moving southeast into the Gulf of Mexico. By Friday, the boundary is progged to remain stalled across the southeast, allowing for increased PWAT values > 2.0 inches. Additionally, a deep layer ridging pattern will begin to take place across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Increased temperatures will allow for efficient daytime heating, which will promote sufficient surface instability. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible across S/SE MS on Friday afternoon as the boundary lingers over the region. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees lower than previous days, with highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the middle 70s. By Saturday the mid-level high pressure system will begin to strengthen over our CWA. This will increase temperatures across the region, with highs increasing into the middle 90s on Saturday and Sunday, while heat indices climb to 105-110+ degF. As of now, an "Elevated" (2/4) risk for dangerous heat will continue to be advertised. Diurnal showers and storms are expected to continue through the weekend as the boundary continues to linger near coastal MS. By the beginning of the next work week, a high pressure system will begin to dominate the forecast, with a broad deep layer high strengthening over the region. This will allow for increased air temperatures as well as heat indices. Highs are expected to climb into the upper 90s to triple digits in some areas by Tuesday. A W/NW flow regime will allow for drier, hotter air to filter into the southeast. Heat indices are expected to range between 105-115 degF. As of now, Excessive Heat products will not be advertised, but confidence is increasing that the potential for a wave of oppressive heat will blanket our CWA. Isolated to scattered diurnal showers and storms will stick around next week, with the highest chances for precipitation being in southeast MS. /AJ/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Other than some scattered SHRA & iso TSRA currently near MEI & GTR early this morning, expect VFR flight categories through around 27/08-10Z, with some MVFR-IFR flight category ceilings for a good portion of the region & is developing currently near GWO. As conditions warm up by mid-morning to midday, ceilings will improve to VFR. Best chance for impacts to local sites from aftn SHRA or iso TSRA again later today will be in central, eastern & southern TAF sites, while limited concerns at GLH, GWO & HEZ. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 88 73 92 75 / 40 10 30 0 Meridian 89 71 92 73 / 60 20 30 10 Vicksburg 89 73 93 76 / 30 10 20 0 Hattiesburg 90 74 93 76 / 80 20 60 10 Natchez 88 73 92 74 / 60 10 30 0 Greenville 89 74 94 77 / 10 0 10 0 Greenwood 88 73 94 76 / 20 0 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/AJ/DC